The Business Activity Expectations Index, calculated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), in August increased by 1 point (p.), to 47.9 after growing in July and June by 1.5 points and 9.6 points respectively, however, remains below the neutral value of 50 points and signals the prevalence of pessimistic business expectations.
“Business is cautiously assessing the results of its activities against the background of the prolongation of the adaptive quarantine. Expectations of enterprises for the fourth month in a row are below the equilibrium values,” the central bank said on its website.
According to the report, in August trade enterprises significantly improved their expectations: the index increased by 4.3 points, to 52.3. The National Bank clarified that the optimistic expectations of respondents in this area are associated with the softening of quarantine and an increase in consumer demand.
It is indicated that representatives of the trade sector are optimistic about the increase in trade (the index increased to 51.5 from 48.9 a month earlier) and the volume of purchases of goods for sale (the index increased to 57.6 from 45.5).
In addition, retailers expect a significant increase in the cost of goods purchased for sale (the index rose to 74.2 from 61.4 in July) due to high purchase prices.
According to the report, despite a slight increase in the index of industry respondents – by 0.8 points – to 48.3, their expectations remain pessimistic. Representatives of this industry downgraded their estimates of stocks of raw materials and supplies (to 42.9 from 52.7 in July), at the same time they strengthened expectations for an increase in prices for their own production (to 63.3 from 59.1 in July).
