The Business Activity Expectations Index, calculated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), rose to 51.6 in June from 50.5 in May, according to a survey of enterprises conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine and published on the website of the regulator.
“In June, companies across most of the surveyed sectors reported optimistic expectations of their business performance – the indices of the construction, industrial and services sectors moved above their neutral levels. Meanwhile, companies in the trade sector have reported pessimistic expectations for three months running,” the report says.
“Industrial companies upgraded their optimistic expectations of their business performance amid benign external and internal environments – the sector’s index was 52.5 in June, up from 50.8 in May. Respondents reported much firmer expectations for the amount of manufactured goods, while also remaining upbeat about an increase in the number of new orders, including new export orders,” the bank said.
“Service companies also improved their expectations of their business performance, with the sector’s index moving to 52.3 in June, up from 50.7 in May. Respondents expected an improvement in all performance indicators, expecting most strongly an increase in the amount of services that have been provided, and the services currently being provided,” it said.
“Residential housing and non-residential facility construction companies upgraded their performance expectations most of all. The sector’s index moved up from 49.4 in May to 58.1 in June – the highest figure among the sectors. Respondents expressed strong expectations for the amount of construction work done and the number of new orders, while also reporting intentions to hire more staff for the first time since September 2019,” according to the document.
“In contrast, trading companies were downbeat about their business performance – their index dropped to 48.2 in June, down from 49.9 in May, remaining below the neutral level for three months in a row. Respondents reported dimmer expectations about all performance indicators, such as trade turnover, goods purchased for sale, and staff numbers. Most companies in the sector expected a further decrease in their trade margins,” the report notes.
“Companies across all sectors expect a rise in their selling prices on the back of continued increases in raw material and higher purchase and supplier prices. Staff expectations remain guarded – companies across all sectors, apart from the construction sector, still report no intentions to expand their workforces,” the NBU says.
This survey was carried out from June 3 through June 22, 2021. A total of 316 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 42.1% are industrial companies, 28.8% companies in the services sector, 24.4% trading companies, and 4.7% construction companies, while 36.1% of the respondents are large companies, 32% medium companies, and 32% small companies.
