The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has reduced the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 7.1% compared to the July forecast – to 64.5 million tons from 69.4 million tons, according to the UGA website .
This change in forecasts was caused by a 5.8% reduction in sown areas under these crops to 18.0 million hectares from 19.1 million hectares due to the consequences of Russian aggression in Ukraine.
“Despite the stubbornness and courage of Ukrainian farmers, there are objective obstacles to harvesting in mined, occupied areas and destroyed crops,” the UGA statement says.
According to her, the total export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 32.8 million tons (in the July forecast – 31.5 million tons), provided that sea grain corridors are maintained and further expanding the capacity of border crossings on the western borders of Ukraine. At the same time, the transitional balances of agricultural products in the country at the beginning of MY 2022/2023 amounted to 26 million tons of grain and oilseeds, and by the end of the MY they are expected to increase to 30.5 million tons.
“In general, the export of grains and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports for export remain open. Export of grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries who are in dire need of it,” the organization said in a statement.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 19 million tons (-8.6% compared to the July forecast of the organization); 24 million tons of corn (-12.1%); 5.4 million tons of barley (-18%); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (forecast kept); 3 million tons of rapeseed (2 times increase).
In the August forecast, the Association retained its export forecasts compared to July – for example, wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY are expected to be at the level of 10 million tons, corn – 10 million tons, barley – 2 million tons, sunflower – 6 million tons, soybeans – 1 .8 million tons. However, rapeseed exports will double to 2.8 million tons.
As reported with reference to the data of the State Statistics Service, in 2021 Ukraine harvested a record harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the amount of 85.7 million tons, which is 32% more than in 2020. In total, 32.07 million tons of wheat (+28.9%), 41.87 million tons of corn (+38.2%) and 9.42 million tons of barley (+23.3%) were harvested.
Ukraine in 2021 also harvested 16.38 million tons of sunflower (+25% compared to 2020), 10.8 million tons of sugar beet (+18.1%), 3.5 million tons of soybeans (+24.4%), 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is an association of producers, processors and large grain exporters who annually export about 90% of Ukrainian grain products.
The Joint Coordinating Center (JCC) has given permission for a ship with more than 2,000 tonnes of corn to leave the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk and head for Turkey, the UN reports.
“On August 22, the JCC authorized the movement of one merchant ship Kafkam Etler, which will leave Chornomorsk for Turkey on August 23 with 2,437 tonnes of corn as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” the message says.
It is noted that, “as of August 22, the total tonnage of grain and food products exported from three Ukrainian ports is 721,449 tonnes.”
In addition, on August 22, the JCC completed the inspection of three ships departing from Ukrainian ports – I Maria, Zumrut, Oceans, as well as six arriving ships – Ganga Star, Ashabaltic, Aeolos, Peace M, Anastasia, and FPMC B201.
“They all received permission to sail,” the message says.
Teams of inspectors plan to inspect on Tuesday three vessels arriving in Ukrainian ports – Daytona Dynamic, Eneida, Silver Lady, and three outgoing vessels – Da Liang, Filyoz, Kubrosli Y.
In Istanbul on July 22, with the participation of the UN, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine, two documents were signed on the creation of a corridor for the export of grain from three Ukrainian ports – Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdenny.
The Bureau of Economic Security of Ukraine will cooperate with the University of California at Berkeley on the methodology of analysis of large data sets, economic analysis, macroeconomic forecasting, risk identification, and practical application of major scientific achievements.
The University of California, Berkeley, according to most ratings, is the best public university in the world and the only public university that is among the top ten best educational institutions in the world. The BEB’s request for cooperation in the scientific and applied development of the analytical unit of the Bureau was supported by the University of California.
It is planned to develop a joint long-term project. The first online meeting of BEB employees took place with Yury Horodnichenko, Professor of the Faculty of Economics of the University of California, Berkeley. At the beginning of the meeting, the Director of the BEB, Vadym Melnyk, noted that an urgent aspect of the BEB’s activity is institutional formation, development of the structure, acquisition of new competencies by employees, development of methods for getting ahead. “For representatives of the main analytical body of Ukraine, it is very important to feel the support of our strategic partners, like-minded people. And it’s even nicer than the fact that Berkeley has identified our compatriot as the main contact person”, – emphasized Vadym Melnyk.
On the part of the Bureau, we guarantee transparency, systematicity, result-oriented, high-quality implementation of the best scientific recommendations.” It is particularly important that a significant part of Professor Horodnichenko’s research is devoted to monetary policy, fiscal policy, taxation, economic growth, pricing and business cycles.
The parties agreed on further cooperation and academic support, which is the first step in the cooperation between BEB and the academic community.
The University of California, Berkeley (English: University of California, Berkeley) is a higher scientific and educational institution in the United States, founded in 1868. Located in Berkeley, a suburb of San Francisco, California. It is the oldest and most prestigious campus of the University of California system, which has ten campuses in California. Berkeley’s academic programs, which number more than 300, are considered among the best in the world of higher education. Since 2007, Professor Yury Horodnichenko has been cooperating with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the US Institute of Labor Economics. Since 2009, he has been a visiting researcher at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Consultant of the European Investment Bank and the European Central Bank and is the chairman of the International Academic Council of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).
https://esbu.gov.ua/news/beb-realizovuvatyme-spilnyi-proekt-z-odnym-z-naikrashchykh-universytetiv-svitu
In Ukraine, with the start of the Russian military invasion, food prices rose by at least 20%, and in late autumn they will rise by another 10-15% due to the inflationary weakening of the hryvnia, disruption of supply chains, rising fuel prices, energy and storage costs.
The corresponding forecast was announced by Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC) Denys Marchuk during the broadcast at the Ukraine Media Center.
“Now is August, the vegetable harvest season, so we are seeing a decrease in prices due to an increase in supply. Potatoes, cucumbers, tomatoes and other vegetables have fallen in price, and the seasonal factor will last until October. Considering that a certain number of Ukrainians went abroad, this also contributed to a decrease in prices for seasonal vegetables. But in the autumn, the cost of storing vegetables will increase, so we should expect a 10-15% increase in prices for all groups after October,” Marchuk said during his speech.
The UAC deputy head recalls that the population of Ukraine spends more than half of its income on food, which has risen in price by at least 20% since the beginning of the war due to inflation, disruption of food supply chains, rising prices for fuel, energy and storage costs.
PJSC Alfa Insurance Company (Kyiv) collected UAH 509.015 million in gross premiums in January-June 2022, which is 24.7% less than in the same period of 2021, Expert Rating RA reported in information on confirmation of the company’s financial strength rating at the level of “uaAA +” on the national scale based on the results of work for the first half of the year.
According to the RA press release, the share of insurance premiums owned by reinsurers decreased by 60.5% – to UAH 1.836 million.
During the reporting period, the company made insurance payments in the amount of UAH 194.026 million, which is 0.42% more than in 6 months. 2021
As of June 30, 2022, the company’s equity increased by 21.97%, to UAH 378.43 million, and its gross liabilities – by 15.13%, to UAH 549.74 million. As a result, there was an increase in the indicator of covering the company’s liabilities with equity capital by 3.87 percentage points. – up to 68.84%. The volume of cash and cash equivalents on the accounts of IC Alfa Insurance increased by 16.33% – up to UAH 424.19 million, and the ratio between cash and gross liabilities of the insurer increased by 0.80 percentage points. – up to 77.16%.
The insurer’s assets increased by 17.8% to UAH 928.2 million.
The RA also notes that as of the reporting date, the company formed a portfolio of investments in government bonds (OVGZ and OZGP) in the amount of UAH 238.174 million, which had a positive effect on the provision of liquid assets.
The financial result from the operating activities of the insurer for the first half of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 increased by 3.64 times – up to UAH 15.93 million, and its net profit increased by 4.18 times – up to UAH 19.38 million.
IC Alfa Insurance was founded in 2000 and is one of the top 10 leaders in the Ukrainian insurance market. Offers a versatile portfolio of services, including comprehensive business protection programs and a wide range of insurance products for individuals.
Prometey grain trader signed an export contract for the supply of 25,000 tons of food wheat from the Chornomorsk seaport in mid-September, the passage of the vessel became possible due to the deblockade of Ukrainian ports under the Istanbul grain agreements.
“In accordance with the contract, to load agricultural products, the bulk carrier will arrive in the territorial waters of Ukraine in 2-3 weeks. After the inspection, the dry cargo ship will follow from the port of Chornomorsk to its destination in mid-September,” the group of companies said in a press release on Monday.
“Prometey” emphasized that the conclusion of this contract gives the holding a reason to raise the minimum export bar at the level of 70-80 thousand tons of agricultural products per month.
The grain trader also clarified that it would take months to send a comparable amount of cargo by rail or road.
“This is already a victory on the front of global food security, in the structure of which Ukrainian grain trading companies play an important role. Another important component of the launch of the “grain corridor” is the trend towards improving the situation on the domestic agricultural market,” Prometey summed up in a press release. .
Prometey Group of Companies provides services for the storage, processing and logistics of grain and leguminous crops based on 33 elevators with a total storage capacity of 1.7 million tons.
At the end of 2021, the group of companies planned to receive $45 million in EBITDA, while in 2020 this figure reached $32.6 million, and in 2019 – $30.5 million.
