In Ukraine in January-October 2024 legal production of alcohol increased by 35.4% or $6.2 million compared to the same period last year, said the head of the parliamentary committee on finance, tax and customs policy Daniil Getmantsev.
“An interesting figure to the issue of detenization of the alcoholic beverage market. In the first 10 months of this year, the legal production of alcohol in the country increased by 35.4%, or $ 6.2 million, compared to the first 10 months of 2023,” he wrote in his Telegram channel on Thursday, expressing confidence that the industry has detenized.
The head of the Finance Committee thanked the State Tax Service for the work done on detinization of the alcohol market.
Issue No. 1 – December 2024
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze the current conditions, key influencing factors, and possible scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation
The Ukrainian foreign exchange market is experiencing a growing shortage of foreign currency, driven by high demand in both the cash and non-cash segments. The National Bank of Ukraine stabilizes the market with interventions that cannot fully satisfy the demand for foreign currency, but at the same time achieve the goal of stabilizing the market, which prevents abrupt dynamics and allows for a smooth devaluation trend.
Increased demand for foreign currency in both segments of the market is typical for the beginning of the month and the end of the year.
Statements and steps taken by Ukraine’s international partners to provide further funding from frozen Russian assets, infrastructure support, and economic stimulus projects do not give rise to pessimistic exchange rate forecasts.
However, changes in tax policy, in particular to increase the tax burden on deposit income, may become a new powerful driver of demand for foreign currency and pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate from the population, as well as the flow of foreign currency savings from the formal financial system into cash, while banks cannot offer attractive rates that would offset the risks of new steps of administrative intervention by the state in regulating foreign exchange transactions for the population.
A characteristic feature of recent weeks has been the widening of the spread between the buying and selling rates of the most popular currencies among Ukrainians, the euro and the dollar. This indicates that foreign exchange market operators are seeking to capitalize on the increased demand for cash currency among households, and the widening spread between the bid and ask rates allows foreign exchange market operators to compensate for their own risks amid an unpredictable exchange rate environment.
Dollar exchange rate forecast
Short-term forecast
In the short term, the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar will remain in the range of UAH 41.7-42/$, with a tendency towards UAH 42.5/$. Quotations close to 42 UAH/$ were already recorded in early December, which is in line with our exchange rate expectations for the end of this year. At the same time, seasonal factors, such as increased demand for foreign currency at the end of the year, may cause a slight short-term surge to the level of 42.5 UAH/$.
Medium-term forecast
The dollar is likely to reach UAH 42.2-42.5/$ by the end of 2024, given the traditional increase in demand for foreign currency in December. Among the external factors, the main one is the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, which will affect the dollar’s position in the global market, and this will be reflected in the dynamics of the hryvnia exchange rate, which will still drift smoothly to the value of 45 UAH/$, which is the basis for the state budget for 2025.
Euro exchange rate forecast
Short-term forecast
The euro remains under pressure on the international market due to expectations of ECB rate cuts. In Ukraine, this was reflected in the stabilization of the hryvnia exchange rate against the euro at UAH 43.6-44.3/€. Given the absence of local drivers, the exchange rate will remain within these limits with a potential slight decline in the near future.
Medium-term outlook
Over the next few months, we expect the euro to gradually rise to UAH 47-48/€, driven by a possible easing of the ECB’s monetary policy. However, the euro’s strengthening will also largely depend on the success of the eurozone’s economic recovery and global trends. The dynamics of the euro against the hryvnia will largely reflect these trends in the Ukrainian market, as there are no internal influential fundamental drivers of the euro exchange rate in Ukraine, only situational ones.
Key factors affecting the foreign exchange market
Recommendations for businesses and investors
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information provided in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and are not responsible for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they themselves consider sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KIT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KIT Group is one of the largest operators of this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KIT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
Photo: Kyt_group_dec
Source: https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1033647.html
In 2024, the Podorozhnyk pharmacy chain invested about UAH 146.5 million in the energy autonomy of its pharmacies.
According to Interfax-Ukraine, the chain has provided pharmacies with inverters that automatically turn on when there is a power outage. The inverters are connected to the most important lines for the pharmacy’s operation.
“Thanks to the battery, the inverter provides power for several hours. As soon as the power goes back on, the inverter switches back on, and the battery itself is charged until the next use,” said Podorozhnyk.
At the same time, the chain noted that in the event of prolonged power outages, when the battery is discharged, pharmacies can additionally turn on the generator.
“Our generators are powerful and can withstand the lighting of pharmacies and the operation of refrigerators. The refrigerators have two temperature modes that are constantly maintained. Pharmacists measure the temperature every day and record it,” said Podorozhnyk, commenting on the chain’s work in the face of blackouts.
The Podorozhnyk pharmacy chain includes about 1.8 thousand pharmacies throughout Ukraine and employs more than 9 thousand people.
The chain was founded in 1999 in Lviv.
Former Danish Foreign Minister Eppe Kofod has been elected chairman of the Supervisory Board of NPC Ukrenergo, the company reports.
“An independent representative Eppe Kofod became the Chairman of the Supervisory Board, and the state representative Anatoliy Hulei became his deputy,” Ukrenergo said in its Telegram channel.
It is noted that at its first meeting after the appointment on December 12, the SB also created committees on audit, appointment and determination of remuneration, investment and strategy and decided on their heads.
Ukrenergo’s Supervisory Board consists of seven members: four independent members elected through a competitive selection process and three state representatives. The independent members of the SB were approved by the Cabinet of Ministers’ Resolution No. 1168-r of November 26, 2024: Patrick Greichen, who served as State Secretary of the German Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Protection in 2021-2023, Luigi de Francischi, former CEO of TERNA and Enel (already a member of the NPC’s SB), Eppe Kofod, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, and Jan Montell, who has experience as a top manager and board member of a number of Finnish energy companies.
The representatives of the state were approved by the Government Decree No. 1232-r of December 10, 2024. The appointees are: Yuriy Boyko, who headed the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine in 2020-2021, is currently an advisor to the Prime Minister and a member of the previous Supervisory Board of NPC; Oleksiy Nikitin, who previously worked, among other things, at SE NPC Ukrenergo as Head of the Electricity Market Development Department, and then at Ukrhydroenergo as Director of the Commercial Department; Anatoliy Guley – built his career in the banking sector, was Chairman of the Board of Oschadbank and Activ Bank, as well as Deputy Chairman of the Board of Alfa Bank, and is a shareholder of Accordbank.
The National Bank of Ukraine has included Insurance Broker Excelsior Prime LLC in the State Register of Insurance and Reinsurance Brokers, the regulator’s website reports.
It also specifies that this decision was made by the Committee for Supervision and Regulation of Non-Banking Financial Services Markets on December 10, 2024.
According to the Opendatabot website, Excelsior Prime was founded on November 1, 2024, in Kyiv. The founder is Vadym Pronko, who is also the owner of Grand Aget LLC and Hyperion Invest LLC.
The broker’s authorized capital is UAH 100 thousand.
As reported, as of November 1, 2024, 43 brokers were registered in the State Register of Insurance and Reinsurance Brokers.
Net migration to the United Kingdom (the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants) in the year to June 2023 amounted to a record high of 906 thousand people, according to revised data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Previously, a positive migration balance of 740 thousand people was reported. Among the reasons for the revision, the ONS cites more available data, additional information on visas for Ukrainians, and optimization of the procedure for assessing migration from countries outside the so-called EU+ (EU, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Switzerland).
In the year to June 2024, net migration fell by 20% compared to the revised level of the previous 12 months – to 728 thousand people. The decline is mainly due to a decrease in the number of dependents arriving on study visas.
