The technical launch of the International Register of Losses, a system for recording claims of individuals, legal entities and the state of Ukraine for compensation for losses, damages and damage caused by the Russian aggression against Ukraine, will be announced on April 2 in The Hague at the International Conference “Restoring Justice for Ukraine”.
“In a week’s time, at the International Conference “Restoring Justice for Ukraine” to be held in the Dutch city of The Hague, in the presence of EU foreign ministers and justice ministers, it is planned to announce the start of the technical launch of the International Register of Damages, a system for recording applications from individuals, legal entities and the state of Ukraine for compensation for losses, damages, and losses from the Russian aggression against Ukraine,” the Ministry of Justice said on its website on Monday.
The register will start accepting applications for compensation for war victims. It is about opening one category of applicants. In total, the Register will include 40 categories.
The categories of applications will include: loss of life, torture and sexual violence, as well as bodily injury, forced displacement and forced resettlement of persons, loss of property and income, other forms of economic damage, damage to critical infrastructure and other state facilities, damage to historical and cultural heritage, damage to the environment, etc. All categories are defined by the Registry Board.
Each category has its own rules for submission, a separate claim form approved by the Registry’s Charter. A digital platform has been created to receive applications. It is expected that all applications will be in digital format only.
All governing bodies of the Registry have already been established. The Registry Board has adopted a set of rules and regulations of the Registry necessary for the launch. It includes the rules for submitting, processing and entering claims, as well as the categories of claims acceptable for entry into the Register of Losses.
“The technical launch is a long-awaited event, the first step towards ensuring justice and compensation for Ukrainians and the country. This was preceded by a titanic work of a large number of specialists and experts. We have enlisted the support of the UN General Assembly, 43 countries have given us the green light, we have almost passed this stage and are moving on. We are waiting for the International Commission to start its work, which will award compensation, and it will take at least a year to set up. In parallel, negotiations with partners are ongoing to open a Compensation Fund, which will be filled with seized assets of the Russian Federation,” said Iryna Mudra, Deputy Minister of Justice of Ukraine, head of the International Compensation Mechanism development.
The International Register of Losses is the first component of the Global Compensation Mechanism, the development of which was initiated by the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine in May 2022 together with international partners. The Compensation Mechanism consists of the Register of Losses, the Compensation Commission and the Fund.
The documents of the Register and more detailed information are available on the website of the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine at https://minjust.gov.ua/ndd/international_register_of_losses.
The international conference “Restoring Justice for Ukraine” will be held on April 2 at the World Forum in The Hague.
In March, JSC OTP BANK made another transfer of UAH 1 million to the account of the Superhumans Center. The total amount of funds that the Bank has already transferred to the prosthetics and rehabilitation center is almost UAH 30 million.
In February, this non-profit project also received UAH 1 million from the Bank. The transfers are made under the charitable donation agreement for 2023-2024 concluded between OTP BANK and Superhumans Center, which provides for monthly support to the center. The funds are allocated to two crucial areas: support for the heroes, their return to social life and the creation of an educational center to scale up assistance and training of prosthetics specialists.
In 2023, OTP BANK held two charity auctions, during which it raised UAH 8.8 million. All funds were allocated to the prosthetics and rehabilitation center.
Bank of the prosthetics and rehabilitation center, OTP BANK, Superhumans Center, TRANSFER
Number of dead and wounded civilians in Ukraine from 24.02.2022 till 31.01.2023 un data
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Quotes of interbank currency market of Ukraine (UAH for $1, IN 01.01.2024-31.01.2024)
minfin.com.ua
Number of unemployed people registered in public employment service as of 01.12.2023 (in thousands)
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), following the third revision of Ukraine’s EFF Extended Fund Facility program, still considers the baseline scenario as the end of active hostilities in 2024, however, in the updated negative scenario, where the assumption of a more intense war that will last into 2025 remains, the Fund has slightly improved the macro outlook.
“Assuming that the shock starts in the second quarter of 2024, the contraction of the economy reaches 4% in 2024, compared to growth of 3-4% in the baseline scenario. A longer and more intense war is expected to have a significant impact on economic sentiment, the rate of return of migrants, fiscal spending needs, and export capacity,” the IMF said in a submission published on its website.
According to its estimates, inflation in 2024 in such a negative scenario will also be higher – 10% compared to 8.5% in the baseline scenario.
At the same time, last December, after the second revision of the program, the IMF in the negative scenario for 2024 expected a decline in GDP by 5% with inflation of 11%.
As for 2025, the forecast of GDP growth and inflation in the negative scenario was kept at the same level – 0% and 8.5%, respectively, while in the baseline scenario the Fund expects economic growth of 6.5% with inflation of 7%.
In addition, the updated negative scenario significantly improved the estimate of the trade deficit for this year – by $5.8 bln to $33.1 bln ($28.7 bln in the base case), respectively, the NBU reserves will be reduced to $34.4 bln ($42.1 bln in the base case), not $32.4 bln, as expected in December.
In addition, the forecast of the state budget deficit has been raised by 1.4 percentage points (p.p.) to 17.6% of GDP (13.7% of GDP in the base case), while the estimate of the state debt has been reduced by 5.5 p.p.. – to 105.9% of GDP (94% of GDP in the base case).
“Given the reserve holdings, some intervention is expected to prevent excessive exchange rate volatility and inflation carryover. Unlike in the baseline scenario, in the downside scenario, inflation will take longer to return to the target level,” the materials said.
According to them, the estimate of the increase in donor funding compared to the baseline scenario was left unchanged at $140.6 billion versus $121.8 billion in the baseline scenario.
“If the severity of shocks takes the country beyond the downside scenario, additional measures may be required, and the authorities have the commitment and capacity to implement them. Repeated shocks beyond the downside scenario could force the authorities to take temporary unconventional measures,” the Fund also pointed out.
Depending on the size of the financing need, according to IMF experts, extraordinary measures that could further raise revenues (e.g. a solidarity tax as a complement to the personal income tax, and/or an additional tax on luxury goods, or excise taxes/levies) and mobilization of domestic bond financing on an even larger scale, as well as monetary financing within program parameters, may be needed. “The latter could include, if necessary, administrative measures requiring banks to hold government securities at a set amount or with a minimum holding period, possibly differentiating banks according to individual liquidity conditions. Secondary purchases of government bonds by the NBU could also support the primary market,” the Fund explained.
Instruments such as inflation- or exchange rate-linked bonds could also be considered, he said.
In addition, says MF, while the scope for fiscal tightening is limited, it will have to be considered as well, as ultimately spending in some categories depends on the inflow of external financing.
“Overall, the extensive discussions with the authorities on contingency plans during the Third Review reaffirm that the program remains credible even in the event of such a negative scenario. The authorities’ political commitment and track record, as well as renewed financial guarantees from international partners and expected debt relief, give confidence that even in this updated deterioration scenario, the program’s objectives of maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability and restoring debt sustainability in the future will be achieved,” the Fund concluded, noting that the authorities are prepared to take appropriate policy measures if necessary.
It is specified that in the fiscal sphere, the bulk of the adjustment will be done through fiscal measures that can be effectively and quickly implemented to increase revenues, while some expenditures should be made contingent on available financing.
“Temporary pressure on the managed floating exchange rate regime under the negative scenario may require the reintroduction of some of the exchange controls used earlier during the war,” the IMF also noted.
The materials note that the risks to both forecasts – both basic and negative – remain extremely significant and continue to develop against the background of prevailing uncertainty. Among the main risks, the Fund categorized the risks associated with a serious shortfall in external financing and/or the impact of a more intense and prolonged war. It is explained that shortages or prolonged delays in donor funding could require the authorities to take swift countermeasures to overcome liquidity pressures, which could weaken confidence and further dampen growth, and be potentially destabilizing if uncertainty lasts too long.
Whereas, as the war continues, defense spending needs could increase significantly due to mobilization and increased intensity of hostilities, which could negatively affect confidence and lead to financing gaps.
“In the event of serious negative shocks, the authorities may resort to suboptimal measures (e.g., accumulation of budgetary arrears and cuts in social spending). The negative sentiment that may arise from this could lead to social unrest,” indicated another IMF risk.
It is emphasized that the 2025 budget will need to take into account continued risks and allow for greater Ukrainian autonomy to meet priority expenditures. “While the baseline scenario expects the war to end by the end of 2024, significant needs for defense, reconstruction, social protection, and economic development are likely to remain. At the same time, external budgetary support, while still substantial, is expected to decline sharply. Thus, additional efforts to increase revenues will be required,” the Fund noted.
According to the updated program, while in 2023 external financing amounted to $42.5 billion, and this year it is projected at $38.1 billion, next year it is expected to drop to $22.9 billion.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video on how countries’ GDPs have been changing in recent years, more video analysis is available here –
