In March 2025, China’s exports grew by 12.4% year-on-year, reaching $313.9 billion. This growth was significantly higher than the forecasted 4.4% and was the highest in the last five months. The main reason for this jump was the desire of Chinese manufacturers to speed up deliveries abroad before the new high US duties on Chinese goods come into effect.
On April 10, the administration of President Donald Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, citing trade imbalances and problems with fentanyl. In response, China imposed retaliatory duties of 125% on American goods and restricted exports of rare earth elements.
Experts warn that the March export growth is temporary. Exports are expected to decline in the coming months due to new tariffs and weakening global demand.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Citi have already lowered their forecasts for China’s GDP growth in 2025 to 4% and 4.2%, respectively. At the same time, China’s imports fell by 4.3% in March, indicating weak domestic demand. Purchases of soybeans fell particularly sharply – by 36.8%, which may be due to trade restrictions and delays in shipments from Brazil.
In response to the deterioration of trade relations with the United States, China is stepping up efforts to diversify its export destinations, increasing supplies to Southeast Asia, Africa, and India.
During his visit to Southeast Asia, President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to strengthen regional trade ties and counter unilateral protectionist measures.
Thus, despite the short-term growth in exports, the Chinese economy faces serious challenges amid the escalation of the trade war with the United States and weakening domestic demand.
