A rise in prices in the primary and secondary housing markets in Kyiv, Dnipro, Lviv, Odesa and Kharkiv will not exceed 5-7% in the first half of 2022, if a controlled pandemic situation and relative economic stability are maintained.
This forecast was voiced to Interfax-Ukraine by President of the Association of Real Estate Specialists (Realtors) of Ukraine Yuriy Pita.
“In the first quarter of 2022, price stability will remain in the primary housing market in the largest Ukrainian cities, associated with a decrease in demand which is observed since the second half of September 2021. A slight price increase should be expected with the onset of the active season. In the period from April to June, inclusive, a price per square meter in the primary market of Kyiv, Lviv and Odesa may increase by an average of 7%, and in Kharkiv and Dnipro a price increase will be about 5%,” Pita said.
He noted that in the first half of 2022, more than 70% of existing demand will be concentrated on objects of a comfort class (new housing format), which will affect the pricing policy of developers.
According to him, the greatest rise in prices is expected in new buildings under construction up to one year in the most demanded segments, mainly a comfort class, new objects (comfort +) and residential complexes of a business category. At the same time, a cost of economy-class housing in 90% of objects under construction will hardly change – a price growth will not exceed 3%.
“In 2022, the process of reorientation of demand for higher quality properties, which by their characteristics can satisfy the most discerning buyer, will continue. Accordingly, this will affect the pricing policy,” he said.
According to Yuriy Pita, in the first half of next year, a price situation will develop in the secondary housing market in accordance with the demand conjuncture. However, according to the specialist, an average price increase in Kyiv, Dnipro, Lviv, Odesa and Kharkiv is possible only within 5% for the most demanded apartments with an area of 35-50 square meters.
By early December, demand in the secondary housing market of Ukraine’s largest cities was 65% concentrated in the segment of small-sized apartments, predominantly Soviet-built. It is in this segment that a slight increase in prices is possible in the first half of 2022, the expert said.
In his opinion, in the first three months of 2022, given the epidemic situation in the country, price stability will be observed in the largest cities.
“Changes in a cost of apartments in the secondary market may be associated with an increase in demand. If the number of potential buyers increases by at least 10%, prices in the secondary market may increase within 5%,” Yuriy Pita said.
In the segment of rental housing in the first quarter of 2022, according to the expert, prices will remain at the level of October 2021.
“The revival in the rental segment is possible not earlier than March-April. However, a cost of renting apartments will be formed taking into account the level of demand,” Yuriy Pita said.
In his opinion, if the situation in Ukraine remains relatively stable from April to June, an increase in demand in the apartment rental segment is possible within 10-15%, which will affect the price environment.
According to him, a price situation in the segments of land plots for construction and private houses in the suburbs of Kyiv, Dnipro, Lviv, Odesa and Kharkiv will be quite stable in the next six months.
In general, the expert believes that in the first half of 2022, the real estate market is not threatened by higher prices or any crisis phenomena that can “collapse” it. “In the next six months, a price situation in the real estate market will be predictable, and supply and demand will be in balance,” Yuriy Pita summed up.
