The deficit of Ukraine’s balance of trade in 2020 would grow from $13.78 billion to $14.92 billion in 2021 and $16.11 billion in 2022. The baseline forecast for social and economic development of Ukraine for 2020-2022, approved by government resolution No. 555 dated May 15, was posted on the government’s website.
The document suggests the second scenario of macroeconomic indicators for 2020–2022, which imposes higher risks, but it also implies an increase in the deficit of the balance of trade from $13.96 billion in 2020 to $15.60 billion in 2021 and $17.25 billion in 2022.
According to the resolution, the balance of trade was determined according to the balance of payments methodology, according to which in 2018 the deficit rose to $11.29 billion from $8.64 billion a year earlier.
The macroeconomic forecast, approved earlier by the government for 2019, suggests an increase in the deficit this year to $11.75 billion. According to the document, in the next two years the deficit was expected to increase to $12.20 billion and $12.98 billion, respectively.
In the new forecast, the growth of the deficit of the balance of trade is forecasted, first of all, due to a slightly higher rate of increase in imports compared to exports. In particular, in the first scenario: in 2020 – 8% and 7.6%, respectively, in 2021 – 7.1% and 6.9% and in 2022 – 7.3% and 7.1%.
According to the baseline scenario, the unemployment rate (according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization) in Ukraine will decrease moderately: in 2020 – to 8.1%, in 2021 – to 8%, in 2022 – to 7.9% compared to with 8.9% previously included in the forecast for the current year.
According to the pessimistic scenario, the unemployment rate in Ukraine in the next three years will remain at the level of 8.6-8.7%.
