Ukraine’s retail trade turnover will continue to grow by an average of 10% in hryvnia in 2024, UTG CEO Yevheniia Loktionova told Interfax-Ukraine.
“The main reason for the growth in consumption in the form of shopping, entertainment and restaurant visits is to counteract stress and negative news. In the new year of 2024, Ukraine’s retail trade turnover will continue to grow by an average of 10% in hryvnia,” Loktionova predicts.
At the same time, according to the forecasts of UTG’s Strategic Consulting Department, the dollar will grow by about 10% and will average 39 UAH/$ for the year.
Loktionova noted that over the two years of war, retail real estate market players have gained experience in survival and adaptation, and most of them have become flexible and adaptive to rapidly changing situations. Therefore, according to UTG analysts, despite the serious challenges, retail real estate has withstood, maintained retail turnover and even demonstrated positive dynamics.
Thus, according to UTG’s Strategic Consulting Department, the retail trade turnover in Ukraine for the three quarters of 2023 amounted to UAH 1 trillion 291 billion 065.2 million, which is 25.32% more than in the same period of 2022 and almost close to the results of the whole of 2021 (UAH 1 trillion 443 billion 832.9 million). The YoY consumer price index (change over the year) in 2021 was 10.0%, in 2022 – 26.6%, and in 2023 – 3.8%. The company emphasizes that retail turnover growth is observed against the backdrop of maintaining the NBU’s average annual exchange rate against the hryvnia.
The positive dynamics of retail trade turnover is largely due to the growth of the Ukrainian consumer confidence index from 83.9 in 2022 to 84.9 at the end of 2023.
According to UTG experts, such indicators became possible due to changes in the attitude of Ukrainians to the fundamental values of life, which led to the rejection of savings and the implementation of the “here and now” concept. The growth of turnover is also influenced by spending on emergency purchases (goods for evacuation, solar panels, generators) and the accumulation of food and hygiene products in case of store closures or logistics problems.
“Retail turnover will continue to grow in 2024, with clothing and footwear becoming the main segment in the growth structure,” Loktionova said.
UTG was founded in 2001. It has developed more than 1300 real estate concepts. Over the years, the company has leased 4.7 million square meters of commercial space in Ukraine.
