The US economy will enter a recession next year amid higher Federal Reserve (Fed) rates, Deutsche Bank economists David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Hooper believe.
“The US economy will take a big hit from additional Fed tightening in late 2023 and early 2024,” analysts said in a report titled Over the Brink.
In their opinion, the Fed will raise the key rate by 0.5 percentage points at the next three meetings, and by mid-2023 the rate will exceed 3.5%. The current target range for the federal funds rate is 0.25-0.5%.
In addition, by the end of next year, the Fed will reduce the amount of assets on its balance sheet by almost $2 trillion from the current $8.9 trillion, Deutsche Bank experts predict. For monetary policy, this is equivalent to another 3-4 rate hikes of 0.25 percentage points, Bloomberg quotes economists.
Deutsche Bank predicts that by the summer of 2023 the US stock market will fall by 20%, and the yield on 10-year US government bonds will rise to 3.3% at the end of this year. Unemployment in the United States in 2024 will jump to 4.9% from 3.6% in March, economists expect.
“Our forecast for a recession in the US next year so far differs sharply from the consensus,” the authors of the report admit. “But we believe that this will soon change.”
