Passenger traffic across the Ukrainian border in the first week after New Year’s, from January 3 to 9, jumped by about 27% to 598,000, according to data from the State Border Service. According to the data, the number of border crossings for departure increased to 258,000 (for comparison, data for January 7 was not taken into account due to the lack of statistics from the State Border Service for December 30) from 223,000 a week earlier, while the increase for entry was even more significant – to 271,000 from 184,000.
The number of vehicles passing through checkpoints this week also increased to 95,000 from 77,000 a week earlier, and the flow of vehicles carrying humanitarian cargo increased to 342 from 268.
According to the State Border Service, as of 6:00 p.m. on Saturday, the largest number of cars and buses waiting to leave Ukraine at the Krakovets checkpoint were 45 and 8, respectively. The queue at the Ustyluh checkpoint consisted of 25 vehicles, at the Ugrinov checkpoint – 15 vehicles, and at the Shehyni checkpoint – 12 buses.
Twenty-five cars and seven buses were waiting to cross the border with Slovakia at the Uzhgorod checkpoint, and five cars were waiting at the Maly Berezny checkpoint.
At the border with Hungary, there was only a small queue of five cars at the Tisa checkpoint, while unusually long queues were recorded at the Porubne and Dyakovo checkpoints on the border with Romania – 50 and 35 cars, respectively, as well as at the Mamalyga checkpoint on the border with Moldova – 35 cars.
The total number of border crossings this week is the same as last year. At that time, 302,000 people left Ukraine and 292,000 entered the country over the same seven days, while this week the figures were 295,000 and 303,000, respectively, although the flow of cars was higher last year – 117,000 versus 109,000, which is probably due to weather conditions.
Last year, a 16.9% increase in passenger traffic was recorded during this week, but the following week saw a 13.3% decrease.
As reported, from May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine, which began with the start of the war, was replaced by an influx that continued until September 23, 2022, and amounted to 409,000 people. However, since the end of September, possibly influenced by news of mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, followed by massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of people leaving exceeded the number of people entering. In total, from the end of September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war, it reached 223,000 people.
During the second year of full-scale war, the number of border crossings to leave Ukraine exceeded the number of crossings to enter by 25,000, during the third year by 187,000, and since the beginning of the fourth year by 195,000, according to the State Border Service.
As Sergei Sobolev, then Deputy Minister of Economy, noted in early March 2023, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP.
In its July inflation report, the National Bank worsened its migration forecast: while in April it expected a net inflow of 0.2 million people to Ukraine in 2026, it now forecasts a net outflow of 0.2 million, which corresponds to the estimate of the net outflow this year. “Net return will only begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, compared to 0.5 million in the previous forecast),” the NBU added, confirming this forecast at the end of October. In absolute terms, the National Bank estimates the number of migrants currently remaining abroad at about 5.8 million.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of December 11, 2025, was estimated at 5.311 million (5.331 million as of November 14), and 5.860 million (5.850 million) worldwide.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data for July this year, there were 3.340 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), compared to 3.757 million in April.
