The international rating agency Fitch Ratings revised upward the price forecast for copper and aluminum for the coming years due to the imbalance in the global market, for gold – due to geopolitical tensions. The experts also adjusted the cost estimates for coking and thermal coal, platinum, palladium and lithium for 2025, reflecting short-term price factors, the agency said.
Expectations for iron ore, nickel, zinc and cobalt were unchanged.
In addition, analysts added a forecast for raw material costs in 2028.
“U.S. trade duties are likely to have implications for the global economy and thus increase volatility in metals prices,” the report said.
The higher forecasts for copper for 2025-2027 reflect a tight global market balance in the short to medium term due to still growing demand from China, although growth slows to 2-3% per year from 7% in 2023. Refined copper consumption in the PRC accounts for almost 60% of global demand.
The lower coking coal forecast for this year reflects weaker steel demand in China, Europe, Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile, coal supplies have been affected by outages at several mines and severe weather conditions. Coking coal demand is likely to recover only towards the end of this year, when new blast furnaces in India and Southeast Asia come online.
Higher aluminum forecasts for 2025-2026 are supported by increased demand, especially in developed markets and China, and limited supply growth, as well as higher alumina prices due to supply disruptions.
Higher gold price expectations for 2025-2027 are driven by a higher geopolitical premium due to the precious metal being considered a “safe haven”.
“Trade war fears and volatility in equity and bond markets have increased investment inflows into gold, leading to record prices. Geopolitical risks and growing investor concerns about inflation and sovereign debt should support prices in the short to medium term,” the Fitch report said.
Expectations for platinum and palladium for this year have been lowered due to a likely price correction due to the impact of the trade war. “We expect suppliers to eventually reduce production, leading to a price recovery in line with our assumptions in 2026,” the agency’s analysts said.
The lowered price forecasts for thermal coal for 2025 reflect weaker demand, especially from China and India, where inventories remain high.
Deteriorating estimates for lithium for the current year reflect rising supplies from China and Africa, contributing to market saturation despite strong demand from electric vehicle manufacturers, Fitch said.
