The fertilizer market in Ukraine will change dramatically in 2024 due to the introduction of customs checks on the origin of imported goods and the forced transition to the use of domestic products, which will not reduce farmers’ costs, Infoindustry news agency reported.
“November and December were actually a failure for imports. We imported as much fertilizer in two months as in October 2023. Fertilizer consumption is skewed towards nitrogen fertilizers. (…) In 2023, the consumption of nitrogen fertilizers to all other types of fertilizers was an unprecedented 3:1. In total, Ukraine used 4.35 million tons of fertilizers in 2023,” the analysts stated.
They pointed to a drop in imports of complex fertilizers through ports in the second half of 2023. In November-December, imports of complex and individual types of nitrogen fertilizers almost stopped after the euro’s surge and difficulties at the border, the industry agency explained.
Commenting on the situation at the border during the import of fertilizers, the experts reminded that on January 4, 2024, all border customs began checking all types of cargo with fertilizers to analyze and determine their country of origin. The reason for such measures, analysts say, is the oversaturation of the markets of all countries around Ukraine with Russian fertilizers.
“Unfortunately, the Ukrainian farmer will now have to wait 10-14 days for the results of fertilizer analysis in addition to buying expensive imported fertilizers, which include all types of NPK (imports). Imports become even less affordable at the beginning of the year. There is less than a month left before the start of the season,” InfoIndustry noted.
At the same time, analysts emphasized that there is good news on the domestic market: fertilizer stocks of traders and producers reached 80-85% of the market needs at the beginning of the season, taking into account current demand.
In addition, according to the agency, the state-owned Sumykhimprom changed its board in early 2024, which gives us hope for a change in policy and possibly the range of fertilizers the plant will be able to offer to the market in the spring.
“In any case, farmers will not have to expect a decline in fertilizer prices, even if the global market collapses or all Ukrainian ports open for imports,” analysts predict, adding that by the end of March, all market scenarios are already known, and it is now important that Ukrainian grain exports do not stop.
