Global refined copper production will increase by around 3.4% to 28.3 million tons in 2025, forecasts the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
This will be driven by the continued expansion of production capacity in China and the start-up of new plants in other countries, most notably the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), India and Indonesia.
In 2026, copper output is expected to grow by 0.9% to around 28.6 million tons.
Global copper consumption is forecast to rise about 3% to 28.1 million tons this year and 2.1% to 28.7 million tons in 2026, ICSG said.
Meanwhile, demand in China is projected to grow by about 3.3% in 2025 and 1% next year. The PRC accounts for about 58% of global copper consumption.
“Asia will continue to be the main driver of global growth, with demand in other key copper-consuming regions remaining weak, particularly in the EU and Japan,” the group’s experts believe.
“Overall, however, global consumption is expected to continue to be supported by increased production activity in some key sectors” that are major copper end-users, “continued demand due to energy transition, urbanization, digitalization (data centers),” the report said.
At the end of 2024, there was a global copper surplus of 71,000 tons. This year, the oversupply of the metal in the global market is expected to be about 178 thousand tons (slightly below the April forecast), while in 2026, a deficit of about 150 thousand tons is projected (in April, a surplus of 209 thousand tons was expected).
Making forecasts, ICSG realizes that the situation on the world market can change under the influence of numerous factors, the report says.
The International Copper Study Group, established in 1992, is an intergovernmental organization that serves as a vehicle for international discussion and cooperation on copper-related issues. ICSG is the only multilateral institution dealing with copper production, consumption and trade. The group comprises 25 nations, including Russia and Kazakhstan, as well as the European Union.
For a video analysis of the world’s largest copper producers from 1970 to 2024, please visit the Experts Club think tank channel – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h8iU50z8C0.
