Global lead and zinc production will exceed demand in 2025, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG).
Refined lead production is expected to increase by 1.9% to 13.27 million tons this year. This will mainly be driven by increased production in China, India, Mexico and the US, while Europe and South Korea are expected to reduce output.
Global lead consumption may increase by 1.5% to reach 13.19 million tons. Growth is expected, in particular, in Brazil, India and Japan, and a decline in South Korea.
In the US, demand for metal fell by 8.3% last year, but is expected to rise by 4.3% in 2025. In Europe, due to the decline in car production in 2024, lead consumption decreased by 4.4%, and is expected to increase by 1.8% this year. Consumption in China is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2025 after a 1.3% decline last year.
Thus, in 2025, the global market will have a surplus of lead in the amount of about 82 thousand tons, ILZSG said in a statement.
Refined zinc production in the world this year is expected to increase by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons.
Production in China will increase by 3.8% (after falling by 3.4% in 2024). Output is also expected to grow in Norway, where Boliden has recently completed the expansion of its Odda plant’s production capacity by 150 thousand tons per year. Meanwhile, zinc production is expected to decline in Italy and Japan due to the closure of Glencore and Toho Zinc’s facilities in these countries, as well as in South Korea.
Consumption of the metal may grow by 1% this year to reach 13.64 million tons. In particular, demand in China is expected to increase by 0.9% (after a 1.9% decline last year). Experts also expect consumption to rise in Brazil, India and Turkey, as well as decline in South Korea.
“Any deterioration in the global economic outlook due to uncertainty over trade policy is likely to have a negative impact on the outlook for zinc demand,” the report says.
The global zinc surplus in 2025 is projected at 93 thousand tons.
The ILZSG, established by the United Nations in 1959, provides information on supply and demand for zinc and lead and conducts research on the situation on the world markets for these metals. The Group’s members are Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Morocco, Namibia, Norway, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Turkey, the United States and the European Union. These countries account for more than 85% of the world’s lead and zinc production and consumption.
