Global steel demand in 2021 will increase by 5.8% compared to the previous year, to 1.874 billion tonnes after a decrease by 0.2% in 2020, to 1.772 billion tonnes, according to the World Steel Association (Worldsteel).
According to the association’s short range outlook released on Thursday, steel demand will see further growth of 2.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 and reach 1.925 billion tonnes.
The current forecast assumes that the ongoing second or third waves of infections will stabilise in the second quarter and that steady progress on vaccinations will be made, allowing a gradual return to normality in major steel-using countries.
Commenting on the outlook, Mr Al Remeithi, the Chairman of the Worldsteel Economics Committee, said, despite the disastrous impact of the pandemic on lives and livelihoods, the global steel industry was fortunate enough to end 2020 with only a minor contraction in steel demand.
“This was due to a surprisingly robust recovery in China, with growth of 9.1%. In the rest of the world steel demand contracted by 10%. In the coming years, steel demand will recover firmly, both in the developed and developing economies, supported by pent-up demand and governments’ recovery programmes. However, for most developed economies a return to the pre-pandemic levels of steel demand will take a few years,” the Worldsteel’s press release said.
According to the association, in China, steel demand is expected to grow by 3% in 2021, to 1.025 billion tonnes, and in 2022 by another 1%, to 1.035 billion tonnes.
Steel demand in the CIS countries in 2021 will increase by 3.4%, to 60.2 million tonnes, and in 2022 it will increase by 3.2%, to 62.1 million tonnes.
Steel demand in the EU (27) and the United Kingdom this year will increase by 10.2%, to 154.9 million tonnes, and in 2022 it will increase by 4.8%, to 162.4 million tonnes.
The USMCA countries will increase consumption this year by 7.6%, to 122.6 million tonnes, and in 2022 by another 4.6%, to 128.3 million tonnes. Central and South America will see 10.6% growth this year and 4.2% growth next year, to 42.7 million tonnes and 44.5 million tonnes, respectively.
Africa will increase demand by 8.3%, to 38.6 million tonnes this year, and will see an increase of 5.9%, to 40.9 million tonnes in 2022, the Middle East in 2021 is expected to increase consumption by 5.4%, to 48.5 million tonnes, and in 2022 by 3.3%, to 50.1 million tonnes.
The countries of Asia and Oceania in 2021 will increase demand by 4.7%, to 1.364 billion tonnes, and in 2022 by 2%, to 1.392 billion tonnes.
In the outlook for countries, in particular, it is reported that India in 2021 is expected to increase steel consumption by 19.8% compared to 2020, to 106.1 million tonnes, in 2022 by 5.9%, to 112.3 million tonnes, the United States will increase demand by 8.1%, to 86.5 million tonnes, and in 2022 by 4.3%, to 90.2 million tonnes. Japan this year will increase demand by 6.5%, to 56 million tonnes, and in 2022 by another 5%, to 58.8 million tonnes.
South Korea in 2021 will increase steel consumption by 5.2%, to 51.5 million tonnes, and in 2022 by 2.5%, to 52.8 million tonnes. The Russian Federation will increase demand by 3% in 2021 and also by 3% in 2022, to 43.8 million tonnes and 45.1 million tonnes, respectively. Germany this year will increase demand by 9.3%, and next year by 5.3%, to 34 million tonnes and 35.8 million tonnes, respectively. Turkey in 2021 will increase demand by 18.7%, in 2022 by 5.7%, to 35 million tonnes and 37 million tonnes, and Vietnam will demonstrate growth by 5% and by 7.6%, to 24.5 million tonnes and 26.3 million tonnes, respectively. Mexico will increase demand in 2021 by 7.5%, to 23.4 million tonnes, and in 2022 by 5.5%, to 24.6 million tonnes.
