The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) has updated its estimate of the potential harvest in 2023, increasing it by another 3.7m tons to 80.5m tons of grains and oilseeds, up from last year’s figures of 73.8m tons of grains and oilseeds, the association’s press service said.
The increase in this year’s crop forecast is due to favorable weather conditions and better crop yields than expected, although almost 2 million hectares were sown less than last year,” the UZA said.
According to the report, the wheat crop estimate for 2023 improved from 20.2 million tons to 22 million tons (2022 was 20.2 million tons and 2021 was a record 33 million tons). Potential wheat exports in MY 2023/2024 could be around 16 million tons, given the 4.4 million tons of carryover at the beginning of the season.
Barley crop estimate for 2023 is also raised from 5.2 million tons to 5.8 million tons (10.1 million tons in 2021 and 5.8 million tons in 2022), and potential 2023/2024 MY exports are expected to be 3 million tons. Corn crop expectations for the new season have improved slightly further, from 26.9 to 28 million tons (37.6 million tons in 2021 and 27.3 million tons in 2022), while exports could be around 22 million tons.
The sunflower harvest in 2023 is expected to be 13.9 million tons (16.9 million tons in 2021 and 11.1 million tons in 2022), with potential exports of 0.5 million tons. Sunflower processing for oil could reach 13.2 million tons.
UZA estimates the 2023 rapeseed harvest at 4.1 million tons, with exports in MY 2023/2024 expected at 4 million tons; soybeans at 4.8 million tons, with potential exports at 3.3 million tons.
According to the forecast, exports from Ukraine in the new 2023/2024 season could potentially reach almost 49 million tons. Last season, which ended June 30, 2023, UZA estimated exports reached 58 million tons.
The UZA noted that exporting such volumes in the new season will be possible if Ukraine is able to export through its Black Sea ports and if the logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route, improve and become cheaper.
“The world has already seen that exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently deliver Ukrainian grain to countries that are in dire need of it,” the industry association explained.
UZA noted that in the conditions of Russia’s blocking of navigation in the Black Sea and its attacks on port infrastructure it continues to work with the European Commission to compensate European carriers for transportation of Ukrainian grain from the border to European ports. This initiative was supported by the European association COCERAL, which has also approached the European Commission. This will allow Ukrainian producers to keep a part of the price, which they are forced to spend now on more expensive logistics, the association believes.
In addition, the problem of increasing the capacity of the Sulinsky Canal on the Danube to ensure its round-the-clock operation and increase the number of pilots is being solved. Work is underway together with the U.S. and the EU to create anchorages in Romanian territorial waters for reloading Ukrainian grain from barges to larger vessels such as Handysize and Panamax, which will make logistics across the Danube more efficient, the UZA said.
“Obstacles to grain exports from Ukraine negatively affect the availability of grain on the world market. According to the US intelligence in a report to the US Congress, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused deep disruptions in global food supplies, raising prices and increasing the risk of food insecurity in poor countries in the Middle East and North Africa,” the business association recalled.
UZA emphasized that rising prices also lead to higher food inflation in developed countries. “In case it is impossible to export products, Ukrainian farmers may reorient their production and give up growing grain, which will further aggravate the crisis in the global food market in the medium term,” the industry association summarized.
