Hourly power outage schedules may start as early as next week with a significant drop in temperature, predicts Volodymyr Velychko, a member of the Supervisory Board of PJSC Centrenergo.
“Forecasters predict a significant drop in temperature starting next week. For power engineers, this means that more substantial measures will have to be taken to balance the power system, such as emergency assistance from operators in neighboring countries. However, before using emergency assistance, it is necessary to maximize the use of own resources. If NPC Ukrenergo fails to maintain the balance of the power system, we will apply blackout schedules,” Velychko explained in a comment to Interfax-Ukraine.
He added that after the daily average temperature dropped in October, the power system has already seen a significant increase in consumption, with its peak shifting from 20:00 to 19:10.
At the same time, Mr. Velychko emphasized that due to the drop in temperature, consumption in European countries will also increase, which will lead to higher electricity prices, in particular due to a decrease in the share of renewable energy sources.
In his opinion, this will affect the possibilities of commercial electricity imports due to the price caps on the Ukrainian spot market.
“Currently, the energy regulator NKREKP has started the procedure of revising price caps upwards, which is supported by the majority of energy market participants, and some even propose to cancel them. This is a painful topic for consumers, but it is important to understand that without an increase in price caps, commercial electricity imports will be unavailable, especially during periods of severe cold weather. Emergency assistance will be much more expensive,” said the member of the Supervisory Board of Centrenergo.
As for the company’s preparations for the winter, he said, repair and restoration works are ongoing, and the company plans to connect almost 1 GW of generating capacity to the power system.
“Centrenergo continues repair works at its own TPPs, which will allow us to provide the power system with about 1 GW of capacity. However, we urgently need to provide all generating capacities of the state with air defense and maximize the use of interstate cross-border crossing to attract imports,” Velychko summarized.
As reported, on October 1, NEURC approved a 23% increase in the price cap on the day-ahead market and the intraday market (IDM) from 11:00 to 17:00, up to UAH 6.9 thousand/MWh (previously UAH 5.6 thousand/MWh).
From December 1, 2024, the crossing capacity for imports is 2.1 GW.
As a result of a massive missile attack on the night of April 11, 2024, Russian troops completely destroyed Trypillia TPP (Kyiv region), on March 22 – Zmiiv TPP (Kharkiv region), and on July 25, 2022, Russian troops occupied Vuhlehirsk TPP (Donetsk region). Thus, Centrenergo lost 100% of its generation.
Acting CEO of NPC Ukrenergo Oleksiy Brekht emphasized that Ukraine could go through the winter without electricity restrictions or with minimal restrictions on daily consumption peaks at temperatures of zero degrees Celsius and above and with minor restrictions at temperatures of minus 10-15 degrees Celsius for up to three days.
On October 30, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with leading Nordic media that the coming winter would be a “big challenge” for Ukraine, including blackouts.
“You are preparing the country for winter, which is crucial, which is a big challenge, a very big challenge for us, because this will be the third winter with blackouts, with all the difficulties,” he said.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/
