The illegal segment of the gambling market accounts for 39% to 53% of the market, according to the results of the first studies conducted in August–September 2025 by Kantar, Gradus, and Factum on behalf of the Association of Ukrainian Gambling Operators (AUGO), according to its press release on Thursday.
“The international company Kantar estimated the share of the illegal gambling market in Ukraine at 52.1%, Gradus at 39%, and Factum at 53%. Unfortunately, the results turned out to be much worse than expected. If the legal market is worth approximately UAH 59.6 billion per year, then the illegal market is worth between UAH 37.72 billion and UAH 66.53 billion,” said AUOGB President Oleksandr Kogut, presenting the main results of the research during a meeting of the Temporary Investigation Commission in the parliamentary committee on finance, tax, and customs policy.
According to him, 90% of all illegal casinos are of Russian origin.
The results of the research conducted by the three companies coincide with the estimates of the international company H2 Gambling Capital, which has determined the current level of the illegal gambling market in Ukraine to be 45.6% and forecasts that this figure will grow to 58% by 2030, according to the release.
Kogut clarified that independent estimates of the size of the “black” market from three research agencies were obtained by the Association at the request of the Ministry of Digital Transformation/Playcity. The representative study was conducted over two weeks using various methods proposed by the three agencies. Between 800 and 2,500 respondents took part in it.
It is noted that the survey revealed the main factors why Ukrainians choose illegal online casinos, such as: speed of payouts; the ability to avoid paying taxes; ease of registration and anonymity; the ability to play using cryptocurrencies; the absence of age and behavioral restrictions (access for gambling addicts and teenagers under 21) and the absence of betting limits.
According to the AUOGB, research has shown that any restrictions or inconveniences in “white” legal casinos lead to an outflow of players to illegal online casinos.
Traffic analysis showed that about 25,000 Ukrainians switch to unlicensed online casinos every quarter. An additional fundamental reason is that illegal operators have better conditions: they are not restricted in advertising and marketing tools, while advertising by legal operators is strictly regulated by law, the Association notes.
According to Kogut, the key problem in combating the “black” market is the failure of telecom service providers to comply with the decisions of regulators (NCCEC, Playcity, NSDC) regarding blocking and the lengthy procedure for blocking illegal sites: it takes at least 10 days to close a site, while owners of illegal casinos create mirror clone sites in 1-2 days.
“Political will and strong technological solutions are needed to block such resources more quickly,” the Association’s president emphasized.
AUOGB Vice President Oleg Arestarkhov believes that politicians are currently ignoring the growth of the “black” market in their rhetoric, instead focusing their efforts on criticizing the legal industry.
“We are faced with an endless barrage of completely unfounded accusations of alleged tax evasion by individual operators. This is, in essence, a targeted bullying of the ”white” industry, which pays 19-20 billion hryvnia in taxes every year. It is clear to us that discrediting the legal market is beneficial to illegal operators,” his words are quoted in the release.
According to Arestarkhov, politicians must remember that their task is to protect Ukrainians who may end up on illegal sites. “Today, these people are completely unprotected, players constantly encounter cases of financial fraud and outright dishonest play, when winnings are simply not paid out,” he said.
According to the AUOGB, the total revenue of the Ukrainian IGaming market in the first half of 2025 amounted to UAH 27.1 billion. According to the State Tax Service, which was announced at the TSK, the amount of taxes paid by the industry for 8 months of 2025 exceeded UAH 13 billion.
The Association of Ukrainian Gaming Operators is an independent self-regulatory organization that brings together leading licensed operators in the industry, who pay more than 57% of all tax revenues in the industry. The main goal of the AUGO is to establish transparent rules for the functioning of the market and to combat illegal business.
Since February 2025, state policy in the field of gambling has been formed and coordinated by the Ministry of Digital Transformation. On March 21, the Cabinet of Ministers decided to create a new central executive body, the Playcity agency, which is officially subordinate to the Ministry of Digital Transformation and replaced the previous regulator, the CRAIL, on April 1.
The previous regulator, KRAIL, issued 7,217 licenses for the right to organize and conduct gambling activities and simultaneously terminated (canceled) 4,123 licenses.
