In December 2024, Ukraine imported dairy products (DP), in particular, under headings 0401-0406 UKT FEA (condensed milk and cream, condensed milk and cream, fermented milk products, whey, butter and other fats, cheeses of all kinds and cottage cheese) for $38.5 million, which is a record value for 2022-2024.
According to the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEP), the previous maximum (in terms of value) of about $29 million was recorded in January 2022 and December 2023.
Analysts noted that the volume of dairy imports in December 2024 was more than a third higher than in December 2023.
“This was the result of the price situation in the raw milk market in the second half of 2024. From June to December, prices for raw milk of extra quality in Ukraine increased by almost 45% (from less than UAH 14 to more than UAH 20 per kg). This automatically led to a decrease in the competitiveness of domestic dairy products, especially cheese, in the domestic market. As a result, by the end of November, the price of raw milk in Ukraine came close to the European average, exceeding the indicators of some European countries with developed dairy farming,” the industry association explained.
At the same time, the volume of imports of dairy products in December 2024 was more than 2.1 times higher than the corresponding figure for May-June 2024, when Ukraine recorded a positive balance of exports and imports of foreign trade in these goods. According to analysts, the volume of cheese imports increased the most: in December, Ukraine imported more than 5.34 thousand tons of this product worth about $32 million, which is 43% more than the previous maximum in December 2023, when 3.73 thousand tons of cheese were imported. In July-October, the standard indicator of cheese imports to Ukraine amounted to about 3 thousand tons.
Exports of dairy products in December 2024 declined sharply compared to previous months, to their lowest level since March 2024. While the average export of these products in June-November exceeded $20 million, in December it fell below $16 million. Export volumes decreased significantly: TP 0405 (oil and milk fats) amounted to only 44% of the August figure and 68% of the November figure; TP 0406 (cheeses) was at 60% of the October-November figure.
“Imports in value terms in December 2024 were 2.4 times higher than exports, which is a record value for the period of martial law in Ukraine (the previous maximum was recorded in December 2023, when the excess was 2.15 times),” the business association stated.
Experts predict that in January 2025, the negative trend in foreign trade in dairy products will continue, with imports significantly exceeding exports.
“It is obvious that the level of raw milk prices that was formed in early December 2024 causes the loss of competitiveness of domestic dairy products both on foreign and domestic markets. The only way out of this situation is to increase the supply of raw milk, which is possible only through the implementation of effective measures to stimulate investment activity in the dairy sector in Ukraine,” the UMPA summarized.
