Ukraine has a large untapped potential in the use of solar energy. A new BE study commissioned by Greenpeace shows the ways and opportunities, as well as the obstacles to solar energy development.
Background
In the years preceding the outbreak of Russian aggression, the share of solar energy in Ukraine’s total electricity production has already increased significantly – from 5.9 GW in 2018 to 8.06 GW in 2022 – with an increase in solar generation capacity of almost 37%. Further expansion of solar generation is essential for achieving climate goals. But it’s not just climate protection considerations that speak in favor of solar power. Ongoing Russian attacks on fixed energy infrastructure make decentralized alternatives necessary, in which solar power will play a key role. With this in mind, we analyze how a significant expansion of solar generation can be integrated into the Ukrainian power grid. We conducted this study on behalf of Greenpeace.
Methodology and results
Based on technical and economic modeling, we determined the optimal share of solar power for the period 2027-30. The results show that 9.2 GW of solar generation capacity can be integrated into the Ukrainian grid by 2027, and up to 14 GW by 2030. This corresponds to an increase of 8.4 GW compared to current capacities and requires investments totaling almost €5 billion.
The study also analyzes the technical and economic obstacles that currently still hinder the expansion of solar energy. These include barriers to market entry, lack of incentives for investors, regulatory obstacles, and high investment costs.
Outlook.
Based on our analysis, we can conclude that Ukraine has a great potential for solar power plants. However, a number of measures need to be taken to realize this potential. These include
– Investments in electricity infrastructure
– Reducing investment costs
– Liberalization of the electricity market
– Strengthening public finances
– Support for end users
In our study, we analyze individual measures in detail.
