The direct and projected losses to Ukraine’s economy from the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation in terms of lost revenue are estimated at $1.7 trillion, and the loss of added value at $0.6 trillion, according to the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) analytical center.
KSE analysts specified that the updated estimate covers the period from February 24, 2022, to December 31, 2025, and takes into account forecasts until the end of 2026.
Compared to previous data for July 2024, the estimate of revenue losses increased by $536 billion (from $1.164 trillion), and value-added losses — by $214.3 billion (from $385.7 billion).
“The increase is due to an update in methodology, the use of new data at the company and sector levels, and an extension of the analysis period, which now covers losses through the end of 2026,” KSE explained.
According to the report, the current loss of added value is already more than three times higher than Ukraine’s pre-war GDP for 2021. The most affected sectors were trade ($696.3 billion), industry, construction, and services ($645.6 billion), and agriculture ($81.9 billion). Losses of key infrastructure in the energy sector reached $75.3 billion, and in transport — $60.2 billion.
The war also caused significant additional costs, particularly in the housing sector ($26.8 billion, mainly rent), demining ($24.6 billion), and dismantling destroyed facilities ($13 billion).
Government spending on social support increased by $7.5 billion.
The report was prepared by the KSE Institute’s analytical team in cooperation with the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development of Ukraine, other relevant authorities, and the National Bank of Ukraine, using World Bank methodology.
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