Oxford Economics has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP fall in 2020 to 4.6% compared to 4.9% of GDP in the November forecast, according to the December forecast.
The fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2020 may amount to 5.5% of GDP with a further recovery of growth by 3.5-4% in the next two years, analysts at Deutsche Bank expect.
The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) expects the economy to fall by 5.1% of GDP in 2020, according to the KSE economic activity review for the fourth quarter of this year.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) preliminarily estimates the loss of Ukraine’s GDP from the enhanced quarantine in January 2021 at 0.2%, Deputy NBU Governor Dmytro Sologub has said.
The fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in July-September 2020 amounted to 3.5% compared to the same period in 2019, the State Statistics Service confirmed its preliminary assessment, published in mid-November.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-October 2020 decreased by 71.4% compared to January-October 2019, to $3.354 billion from $8.496 billion, the State Statistics Service reported on Tuesday.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in November 2020 accelerated to 1.3% from 1% in October and 0.5% in September after falling by 0.2% in August and 0.6% in July, reported the State Statistics Service on Wednesday.
The 2021 national budget provides for a deficit of 5.5% of GDP, or UAH 246.6 billion, according to the text of the law released on the website of the Finance Ministry on Monday.
Most members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expect the key policy rate to rise to 6.5-7.5% in 2021 due to the predicted rise in inflationary pressures, the regulator’s website said on Monday.
The total public debt of Ukraine in November 2020 increased by 1.16% in U.S. dollars, to $ 84.24 billion and by 1.27% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.398 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
The prices of industrial producers in Ukraine in November 2020 increased by 2%, while in October by 3.8%, in September by 1.7%, in August by 2.3%, in July by 0.4%, and in June and May their decline was recorded by 2% and 0.6%, respectively, the State Statistics Service has said.
Industrial production in Ukraine in November 2020 compared to November 2019 decreased by 0.3%, while in October by 5%, in September by 4.4%, in August 5.3%, in July 4.2%, June 5.6%, May 12.2% and April 16.2%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Since the beginning of the new 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of December 11, Ukraine has exported 22.89 million tonnes of grains and legumes, which is 3.8 million tonnes less than year-over-year.
The transport companies of Ukraine in January-November 2020 reduced transportation of goods by 11.6% compared to the same period in 2019, to 546.6 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukrainian transport companies carried 2.345 billion passengers in January-November 2020, which is 39.9% less than in the same period in 2019, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in November 2020 increased by 12.1% compared to the same month in 2019 in comparable prices, while in the previous month the growth was 15.2%, the State Statistics Service has said.
MACRO SUMMARY, UKRAINIAN ECONOMY
