Milk prices in Ukraine continue to decline, as of March 25, the average purchase price of extra milk was 16.35 UAH/kg (excluding VAT), which is 0.45 UAH less than a month ago, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
According to the report, premium milk costs an average of 16.15 UAH/kg (excluding VAT), which is 0.50 UAH less than last month, and first-class milk costs 15.65 UAH/kg (excluding VAT, 0.35 UAH lower).
Accordingly, the weighted average price of the three grades is 16.20 UAH/kg (excluding VAT), which is 0.40 UAH less than a month ago.
“Purchase prices in Ukraine continued to move downward in the second half of March. However, the surplus of raw milk on the market, which puts pressure on purchase prices, decreased compared to the first half of March due to an increase in dairy exports from Ukraine and a certain increase in domestic consumption,” said AVM analyst Giorgi Kukhaleishvili.
He added that Ukrainian consumers are used to high prices for dairy products. Dairy processing plants stimulate consumption of dairy products in Ukraine by offering promotional discounts on their products in retail chains. The profitability of skimmed milk powder and butter production has improved, but deteriorated in the case of cheese and casein.
The industry association predicts that as of April 1, there may be a slight decrease in the price of raw milk in Ukraine by 0.2-0.3 UAH/kg.
In terms of euros, raw milk prices in Ukraine are higher than in New Zealand and South America, which actively export their dairy products to Asia and Africa and compete with Ukrainian and European exporters.
The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Hungary and Slovakia and the likelihood of the disease spreading to Poland and Austria create prospects for further declines in purchase prices. Dairy processing companies in Poland and Austria export significant volumes of dairy products and, in the event of quarantine, they may switch to the production of long-term storage products, including butter or milk powder.
“These products are the key items of Ukrainian dairy exports. The accumulation of butter and milk powder in warehouses in Europe may lead to lower prices for similar products and raw milk in Ukraine. There is also a risk of foot-and-mouth disease spreading to Ukraine from neighboring countries, which could lead to significant losses for the dairy industry,” the AMP warned.
The association suggests that the abolition of the EU’s preferential customs regime for Ukrainian agricultural products, including dairy products, on June 5, 2025, may be a factor in reducing raw milk prices in Ukraine. The reinstatement of duties is likely to reduce the volume of dairy exports from Ukraine even to third countries, as they are shipped through the seaports of Poland and Romania.
“Most likely, the surplus of raw milk in Ukraine will increase, and purchase prices will go down in the event of a similar scenario,” the industry association summarized.
