In January-February 2025, Ukraine produced 0.9 million tons of milk, which is 3.5% less than in the corresponding period of 2024, according to Infagro, an industry information and analytical agency.
In February, agricultural enterprises produced 1.7% more milk than in February 2024. Given that 2024 was a leap year, the annual growth in February was 5.3%, analysts said.
Experts emphasized that as of March 1, there were 1.15 million cows in Ukraine, which is 8.4% less than on the same date last year. Official figures for the number of cows in agricultural enterprises showed a negative annual trend with a slight decrease of 0.1% by March 1, 2024.
“In April, we can expect stabilization of the milk market due to the growth of overall demand, which means that the rate of decline in purchase prices will slow down, price revisions will become pointwise,” Infagro emphasized.
At the same time, in March 2025, the purchase price of raw milk in Ukraine continued to decline, with prices returning to approximately the level of September 2024. The March price correction was more severe than in February. Competition for raw materials has resumed due to the projected growth in promotional sales of dairy products in the domestic market and increased European demand for Ukrainian goods, especially butter.
Analysts noted that the supply of raw materials in the domestic market continues to grow. New production facilities and new projects in the dairy industry are being launched. Therefore, the pressure on the price of milk is still there.
The average cost of raw materials in March 2025 in agricultural enterprises was 16.6 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 5.1% lower than in February, but 15% higher than in March 2024; the cost of raw materials from the population was 10.5 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 4.1% lower than in February, but 14% higher than in March 2024.
The range of milk prices at the end of March was mainly from agricultural enterprises – 15.8-17.0 UAH/kg excluding VAT, and from households – 9.5-11.0 UAH/kg excluding VAT.
“The estimated margin of milk production continued to decline in March. The average estimated operating margin in March amounted to 15%, which is 7 points less than in February and 29 points lower than in March 2024,” Infagro summarized.
