Raw milk production in Ukraine decreased in 2025 amid falling purchase prices, increased production costs, shipping disruptions, as well as severe frosts and heating problems that led to a decline in cow productivity, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), citing data from the State Statistics Service.
The industry association noted that in December 2025, farms of all categories produced 478,000 tons of raw milk, which is 29,000 tons less (-6%) than in November of the same year and 75,000 tons less (-14%) than in December 2024.
At the same time, milk production in Ukraine in 2025 amounted to 6.86 million tons, which is 374 thousand tons less (-5%) than in the previous year. In December 2025, the share of enterprises in raw milk production was 57%, and that of private farms was 43%.
In December 2025, enterprises produced 271,000 tons of raw milk, which is 6,000 tons more (+2.1%) compared to November, but 12,000 tons less (-4%) compared to December 2024.
Last year, commercial dairy farms produced 3.18 million tons of raw milk, which is 210,000 tons more (+7%) than the previous year.
According to the ABM, milk production in private households in December 2025 amounted to 206 thousand tons, which is 35 thousand tons less (-14%) than in November and 64 thousand tons less (-24%) than in December 2024. In January-December 2025, households produced 3.67 million tons of raw milk, which is 583 thousand tons less (-14%) than the year before last.
“Raw milk production volumes are declining in Ukraine, primarily due to the household sector, which is ceasing to play an important role in the dairy industry. It is likely that if private farms do not consolidate by 2030, their milk will no longer be sent for processing and will be used for their own consumption. To remain in the industry, PFFs must unite into cooperatives and form commercial milk batches or independently increase their cow herds and develop craft production of dairy products,” emphasized AVM analyst Georgiy Kukhiashvili.
He noted that the industrial sector is compensating for the decline in the share of private farms and demonstrating stability in raw milk production. However, in December, milk production in the industrial sector declined compared to the same period last year amid a decline in purchase prices for raw milk under pressure from the collapse of world prices for commodities, including butter.
“Low raw milk prices do not correspond to its cost at dairy farms, which have increased production costs due to energy supply problems, which worsened in January 2026, and the need to spend more money on diesel generators. Due to long blackouts, there were interruptions in the shipment of raw milk from dairy farms to milk processing plants. The plants report that they cannot accept milk and send it for processing when the power is off. The severe frosts this winter, combined with heating problems, have led to a decline in cow productivity,” the AVM said.
The association suggested that, in the context of the crisis, dairy farms may revise their investment plans for 2026, as it is difficult to increase raw milk production during blackouts, and a significant recovery in demand for dairy products on the domestic market is unlikely in the short term.
“It is likely that in 2026, the reduction in raw milk production will occur not only in the household sector, but also in the industrial sector. Due to unprofitability, certain farms with less than 400 head of cattle are likely to close. In this case, raw milk production in Ukraine may decline to 6.0-6.2 million tons. However, those dairy farms that are able to maintain their cow numbers in 2026 and invest in sustainability should benefit in the coming years,” the UAM concluded.
