The Minister of Finance of Ukraine Sergii Marchenko has expressed concern about the strengthening of the hryvnia and expects the exchange rate to weaken to 41.4 UAH/$1.
“We are concerned about the strengthening of the hryvnia… For the next year, we expect the exchange rate to be 41.4 UAH/$1,” he said at the European Business Association’s “EBA Global Outlook: Ukraine’s New Economy” in Kyiv on Monday.
The minister clarified that he was referring to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy and other authorized structures, which the Ministry of Finance is guided by.
Marchenko told reporters that it was an average annual rate.
Speaking about concerns about the strengthening of the hryvnia, the Finance Minister emphasized that “there are no fundamental factors for this.” According to him, this is a disadvantage for export-oriented businesses and the country’s economy in general. Marchenko added that “exports are not growing at all,” while the situation with imports is the opposite.
At the same time, the minister clarified that he is not in favor of any sharp devaluation.
The National Bank has kept the official hryvnia exchange rate fixed at 36.57 UAH/$1 since the end of July 2022. On the cash market, the exchange rate has stabilized at around 38 UAH/$1 this year, while last year it was falling to 39 UAH/$1 and even more.
In a September survey, members of the European Business Association predicted an average annual exchange rate of 41 UAH/$1 for 2024, while a year ago they expected 43 UAH/$1 for 2023.
