The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) last week, with almost no currency purchases, increased its sales on the interbank market by $130.95 million, or 21.0%, to $755.10 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
The data published by the regulator during this period indicate a change in the situation on the cash currency market: the balance was negative every day, fluctuating from $2.0 million on Monday to $15.3 million on Tuesday, $9.2 million on Wednesday, and $12.0 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range from 41.5470 UAH/$1 at the beginning of the week to 41.4983 UAH/$1 at the end of the week.
On the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate remained virtually unchanged at the end of the week: the buying rate was around 41.42 UAH/$1 and the selling rate was 41.50 UAH/$1.
As noted by KYT Group experts, the approaching tax payment period, as well as seasonal activity in the energy sector and imports of energy carriers, are adding liquidity to the market, but are unlikely to lead to significant exchange rate fluctuations provided that key current conditions remain unchanged.
In their opinion, technical and psychological support for the market is provided by the growth of international reserves to $46.7 billion (+10% in April), which creates an additional reserve of stability for the “managed flexibility” policy.
In the short term (2-4 weeks), KYT Group expects the exchange rate to remain in the range of 41.20-41.80 UAH/USD with local fluctuations of ±20 kopecks under the influence of situational factors, provided that current circumstances remain unchanged.
According to the company, in the medium term (2-4 months), the exchange rate may remain stable or shift to 41.80-42.50 UAH/USD under the influence of moderate devaluation.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1071980.html
