As of September 30, 2024, 4 million 197.37 thousand non-EU citizens who fled Ukraine as a result of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, had temporary protection status in the EU, compared to 4 million 163.66 thousand citizens a month earlier, Eurostat reports.
“Compared to the end of August 2024, the largest absolute increase in the number of recipients was observed in Germany (+7,005; +0.6%), Poland (+4,645; +0.5%) and Spain (+3,170; +1.5%),” the agency said.
It noted that the number of beneficiaries decreased in France (-570; -0.9%) and Italy (-10; -0.0%).
Thus, in September, the growth in the number of refugees from Ukraine with temporary protection status slowed to 33.7 thousand from 39.8 thousand in August.
According to Eurostat, despite Germany’s deprivation of almost 237,000 people of this status in July, it still remains the country with the largest number of them in the EU and the world – 1,129,34 thousand at the end of September, or 26.9% of the total number of beneficiaries in the EU.
The top three also includes Poland – 979.84 thousand, or 23.3%, and the Czech Republic – 378.48 thousand, or 9.0%.
Spain (218.30 thousand), Romania (172.41 thousand), and Italy (166.79 thousand) follow with a significant lag.
At the same time, Eurostat clarified that the data for Spain, Greece and Cyprus take into account some people whose temporary protection status is no longer valid.
According to the agency, compared to the population of each EU member state, the largest number of temporary protection beneficiaries per thousand people in September 2024 was observed in the Czech Republic (34.7), Lithuania (28.1) and Poland (26.8), while the corresponding figure at the EU level is 9.3.
It is also said that as of September 30, 2024, Ukrainian citizens accounted for more than 98.3% of the beneficiaries of temporary protection. Adult women accounted for almost half (45.0%) of temporary protection beneficiaries in the EU, children for almost a third (32.3%), while adult men accounted for slightly more than a fifth (22.7%) of the total. A year earlier, the share of women was 46.5%, children 33.7% and adult men 19.9%.
At the end of September 2024, there were also more than 100 thousand people with temporary protection status in Slovakia – 126.97 thousand, the Netherlands – 119.01 thousand, and Ireland – 107.93 thousand.
Between 50 thousand and 100 thousand of them were in Belgium – 84.54 thousand, Austria – 81.91 thousand, Lithuania – 81.07 thousand, Norway – 76.11 thousand, Finland – 67.27 thousand, Switzerland – 66.63 thousand, Bulgaria – 64.32 thousand, Portugal – 63.66 thousand and France – 60.10 thousand (data on children are mostly not included – Eurostat).
This is followed by Latvia – 46.99 thousand people, Sweden – 44.63 thousand, Hungary – 37.99 thousand, Denmark – 36.93 thousand, Estonia – 34.24 thousand, Greece – 31.78 thousand, Croatia – 25.40 thousand, Cyprus – 21.68 thousand, Iceland – 3.92 thousand, Luxembourg – 3.82 thousand, Malta – 2.16 thousand and Liechtenstein – 0.66 thousand.
Eurostat clarified that all the above data relate to the granting of temporary protection on the basis of EU Council Decision 2022/382 of March 4, 2022, which establishes the existence of a massive influx of displaced persons from Ukraine due to Russia’s military invasion and entails the introduction of temporary protection. On June 25, 2024, the European Council decided to extend temporary protection for these persons from March 4, 2025 to March 4, 2026.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of October 15 this year was estimated at 6.192 million, and 6.752 million in the world as a whole, which is 38 thousand and 27 thousand more than as of September 24 this year.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data as of August this year, there were 3.669 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), which is 121 thousand more than in April this year.
According to regional authorities cited by the UN, between August 1 and October 3, more than 120,000 people left Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, including 19,500 who fled active hostilities. In Sumy region, the authorities estimate that 36,000 people, including 6,000 children, have been evacuated.
As noted by Deputy Economy Minister Serhiy Sobolev in early March last year, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP. In its macroeconomic forecast for this year, the Ministry of Economy has included 1.5 million people returning to Ukraine.
At the same time, the National Bank, in its October inflation report, again downgraded its forecast for the outflow from Ukraine this year from 0.4 million to 0.5 million. In absolute terms, the number of migrants staying abroad is expected to increase to 6.8 million this year.
In the new report, the National Bank confirmed its expectation that Ukrainians will start returning home in 2026, but lowered its forecast for net inflows in 2026 to 0.2 million from 0.4 million.
