The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has published a long-term forecast for the period until 2050, according to which oil and natural gas will remain the main sources of energy, occupying more than half of the global energy balance. This confirms the importance of hydrocarbons in the global economy and the strategic nature of energy policy.
Oil and gas demand forecast
- According to the World Oil Outlook-2025, global oil demand will increase from 103.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 to 113.3 million b/d by 2030 and almost reach 123 million b/d by 2050 ExxonMobil+2Anadolu Ajansı+2The Independent Uganda:+2 TheTimes+2The Wall Street Journal+2argusmedia.com+2.
- Oil will be responsible for about 30% of the energy mix and, including gas, more than 50% until the middle of the 21st century.
- In the coming years (2025-2029), OPEC expects a gradual increase in demand – from 105 million b/d in 2025 to 111.6 million b/d in 2029.
The key drivers are:
- Population and economic growth in developing countries – especially Asia, Africa, Middle East. According to OPEC, the world population will reach 9.7 billion by 2050.
- Increase in energy consumption due to the development of artificial intelligence, data centers, transportation, industry.
- Lack of investment in offshore and onshore production – OPEC estimates capex needs in the oil and gas industry at $18.2 trillion through 2050.
Contradictions with other forecasts
- IEA and BP forecast peak demand through 2030 and a gradual decline due to an accelerated shift to renewable sources.
- OPEC expresses skepticism about too rapid energy transitions, especially without taking into account disruptions in fuel supply and availability.
This outlook indicates that oil and gas will retain its prominent position for at least the next 25 years. And while renewable energy is rapidly gaining momentum, the transition away from the traditional energy system must be smooth and gradual, taking into account real economic and social factors.
ENERGY, GAS, OIL
