Oil prices are stable on Monday after a rise last week on fears of supply shortages in the market.
June Brent futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stood at $86.28 a barrel by 8:10 a.m. Monday, down $0.03 (0.03%) from the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts rose $0.22 (0.3%) to $86.31 a barrel on Friday.
The price of WTI futures for May at electronic trades of NYMEX fell by $0.04, to $82.48 per barrel by that time. At the end of previous session the cost of contracts grew by $0.36 (0.4%) to $82.52 per barrel.
Last week Brent gained 1.4% and WTI gained 2.3%. Both grades rose in price for the fourth week in a row.
The market was supported by the forecast published on Friday by the International Energy Agency, according to which the global supply shortage in the third quarter will amount to 2 million barrels per day. “A serious oil deficit in the second half of the year was previously expected, but another reduction (of production by OPEC+ countries – IF-U) threatens to further squeeze supply and increase oil prices at a time when inflationary pressures are already hurting vulnerable consumers,” the agency said in a review.
In the second quarter, the deficit will be 400 thousand b / c, IEA predicts. Previously, the agency expected demand to exceed supply only in the third quarter. The average deficit in 2023 is estimated at 800,000 bpd.
OPEC, which published its monthly forecast a day before the IEA, still expects oil demand to increase by 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, to 101.89 million bpd – above pre-survey levels.
“Obviously, the recent decision by OPEC+ countries to cut production has given a boost to oil prices,” said ING Groep NV analyst Warren Patterson. – Nevertheless, we are seeing refiners’ profit margins shrink, indicating weak demand for petroleum products.”
S&P Global Inc. notes signals of lower diesel demand both in China and in the U.S. and Europe.
