Passenger traffic across Ukraine’s border in the second week after the New Year, from January 10 to 16, fell by 19.2% to 483,000, according to data from the State Border Service.
According to the data, the number of border crossings for departure decreased to 235,000 from 295,000 a week earlier, while for entry – to 248,000 from 303,000.
The number of vehicles and trucks carrying humanitarian cargo that passed through checkpoints this week remained at the previous level – 109,000 and 394, respectively.
According to the State Border Service, as of 3:00 p.m. on Sunday, there were queues at only two checkpoints along the entire western border: Ustyluh on the border with Poland (15 cars) and Mamalyga on the border with Moldova (30 cars).
The total number of border crossings this week is lower than last year. At that time, 245,000 people left Ukraine and 270,000 entered the country in a similar 7-day period. The flow of cars was also higher last year – 120,000, which may be due to weather conditions.
Last year, a 13.3% drop in passenger traffic was recorded this week, and another 12% drop the following week.
As reported, from May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine, which began with the start of the war, was replaced by an influx that lasted until September 23, 2022, and amounted to 409,000 people. However, since the end of September, possibly influenced by news of mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, followed by massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of those leaving exceeded the number of those entering. In total, from the end of September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war, it reached 223,000 people.
In the second year of the full-scale war, the number of border crossings to leave Ukraine, according to the State Border Service, exceeded the number of crossings to enter by 25,000, in the third year by 187,000, and since the beginning of the fourth year by 182,000.
In its July inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine worsened its migration forecast: while in April it expected a net inflow of 0.2 million people to Ukraine in 2026, it now forecasts a net outflow of 0.2 million, which corresponds to the estimate of the net outflow for this year. “Net return will only begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, compared to 0.5 million people in the previous forecast),” the NBU added and confirmed this forecast at the end of October. In absolute terms, the National Bank estimates the number of migrants currently remaining abroad at about 5.8 million.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of January 16, 2026, was estimated at 5.349 million (5.311 million as of December 11), and 5.898 million (5.860 million) worldwide.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data for July this year, there are 3.340 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), compared to 3.757 million in April.
