Prices for raw milk in Ukraine declined in early January due to a decrease in demand from dairy processing companies during the New Year holidays, the Association of Milk Producers (AMP) reported.
The industry association noted that the average purchase price of extra milk as of January 6 was 19.10 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 0.60 UAH less than a month earlier, while the price of premium milk was 18.35 UAH/kg excluding VAT (-0.35 UAH), and the price of first grade remained unchanged at 17.65 UAH/kg excluding VAT. The weighted average price of the three milk grades was fixed at 18.37 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 0.32 UAH less than in December.
“The decline in raw milk prices in Ukraine at the beginning of the year led to a drop in butter prices. A drop in consumer activity in the market is also traditionally observed during the New Year holidays. In addition, Ukrainian companies reduced the volume of butter exports in December due to lower prices for the product on foreign markets. (…) The domestic market has seen a surplus of raw milk, and maximum prices for extra and premium milk have gone down due to reduced demand from dairy processing companies,” explained AVM analyst Giorgi Kukhaleishvili.
The AMP reported that Ukraine is also experiencing a decline in butter prices, coupled with a halt in the growth of prices for fermented dairy products due to limited purchasing power of the population and reduced demand for dairy products in the domestic market. Due to high prices for domestic dairy products, imports of processed dairy products, including cheese, increased in December.
“A significant reduction in purchase prices in Ukraine is unlikely due to the increase in the cost of milk production due to rising feed costs and the need to meet EU environmental requirements,” the industry association said.
It is likely that in 2025 the global dairy market will move to a new price corridor – from $40 to $50 per 100 kg of raw milk. In 2024, the average price of raw milk in Ukraine was $42.45 per 100 kg, which is 20% higher than in 2023. The price of raw milk in Ukraine grew throughout 2024, unlike in the EU, the US and New Zealand. In 2025, the average milk price in Ukraine is likely to increase to $45-46 per 100 kg of raw milk. In the absence of force majeure, a certain decrease in purchase prices is likely in late April – early May this year as a result of a seasonal increase in milk production in households, the AMP predicts.
