The processing of alternative oilseeds in the new season may increase in case of signing the bill containing “soybean-rape amendments”, but not significantly, with the processing of rapeseed amounting to 500-550 thsd tonnes, soybeans – 2.7 mln tonnes, sunflower – 13.6-13.8 mln tonnes, APK-Inform news agency reported.
“Indeed, the export duty for soybean and rapeseed may make the domestic prices for oilseeds more attractive for the processing companies, but there are a number of factors that may limit the processing volumes, including the expected lower harvest of alternative oilseeds and higher harvest of sunflower, as well as the existing difficulties with the sale of the processed products,” – the analysts explained.
According to the experts, the potential of rapeseed harvest in Ukraine is decreasing as the harvesting campaign progresses, as it shows much lower yields than expected. Currently, APK-Inform estimates the gross harvest of this crop at about 3 mln tonnes (-18% compared to 2024/25 MY).
At the same time, the competition in this sector between exporters and processors will remain high even with the export duty, as a number of companies already have the obligations under the foreign economic contracts, and the supply of raw materials from farmers remains low, which will support the prices of rapeseed, while the prices of rapeseed oil are still under pressure due to the oil market conditions and the increase of oilseed production in the EU.
“Our estimate of rapeseed processing in Ukraine in 2025/26 season does not exceed 500-550 thsd tonnes (as compared to the previous season). At the same time, if the margin prospects in this sector improve, we may revise the estimate upwards,” the analysts predict.
The prospects of the soybean sector, in their opinion, are also ambiguous.
The area of soybean planting in 2025 turned out to be bigger than forecasted, but according to APK-Inform, the harvest is unlikely to exceed the previous year’s figure and, given the growth of the yield potential, is expected to reach 6.3 mln tonnes (-8%). However, this could be one of the largest figures for the industry, which could have a corresponding impact on prices and keep it attractive for processors.
In the new season, subject to the export duty on soybeans, the processing of soybeans may reach 2.7 mln tonnes (+3%) and become a new record for the industry.
Another important factor will be the amount of sunflower harvested and the margin of its processing.
“It is expected that the production of this oilseed may grow by 8% to about 14 mln tonnes, and the crushing – to 13.6-13.8 mln tonnes, which may slightly reduce the interest of large mills to alternative oilseeds,” APK-Inform summarized.
