The current forecast of rapeseed harvest in Ukraine will be a record and will reach a maximum of 4.2 million tons due to expanded sown areas and high yields, the export potential of the market and its processed products will also reach a maximum, according to the analytical agency Ukragroconsult.
“The key to achieving such results is not only a large harvest and the launch of new processing facilities, but also the solution of logistical issues,” the report says.
According to analysts, in July, the export statistics showed a rather active start of the season, which is important in the absence of a grain corridor. Logistics has shifted to the Danube ports and land routes through the western borders.
Due to the constant attacks on the port infrastructure, the September contracts are focused on the road and rail logistics of rapeseed, experts said, citing information from market participants.
The analytical agency pointed to the change in the geography of exports of rapeseed and its products. Now the sales of Ukrainian rapeseed are focused not so much on the European Union, but on the UK, Switzerland and Bangladesh. The situation is similar with rapeseed oil, which is exported mainly to China and Malaysia instead of the EU market. At the same time, 95% of rapeseed meal goes to the EU market, while the remaining 5% goes to Vietnam.
As of August 22, 2023, Ukraine exported about 500 thsd tonnes of rapeseed and more than 58 thsd tonnes of rapeseed oil, analysts say, adding that current export figures allow us to consider optimistic scenarios.
