The indicator of economic sentiment in Ukraine, calculated by the State Statistics Service, in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased to 98.7% from 98.5% in the third quarter, from 96.9% in the second and from 90.2% in the first quarter of this year.
According to the State Statistics Service, the indicator of business confidence in retail trade – the only one of five in the area of positive values – deteriorated from 6.8% to 4.3% in the third quarter.
At the same time, the values of other indicators of business confidence improved, albeit slightly: in construction to minus 22.4% from minus 23.6%, in the service sector – to minus 10.8% from minus 12.8%, in processing industry – to minus 6.4% from minus 7.5%.
The consumer confidence indicator rose to minus 21.1% from minus 21.2% in the third quarter.
As reported, the calculation of the economic sentiment indicator was first started in the first quarter of 2017. The index reached a record high level of 110.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019, however, since the onset of the coronavirus crisis in the world, it first dropped to 108.4%, and then collapsed to a record low of 73.3%.
The agency indicated that the indicator was calculated in accordance with the methodology for calculating indicators of business expectations in accordance with the requirements of the expanded Special Data Dissemination Standard of the International Monetary Fund, updated by the State Statistics Service in December 2017.
Business confidence indicators, by sector, are assessed based on surveys on the current level of orders and finished goods inventory, changes in sales volumes over the past three months, forecast of changes in production/sales volumes and the number of employees in the next three months.
The largest contribution in the economic sentiment indicator definition is the contribution of the indicator of business confidence in industry – 40%, followed by the service sector – 30%, construction with retail trade – 5% each. The weight of consumer sentiment is 20%.
