The rye deficit in the 2025/2026 season will be 100%, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of rye bread, said Rodion Rybchinsky, director of the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association, in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
“We can say with certainty that there will be a 100% rye shortage in the 2025/26 season. Already, Polish rye is being partially processed in Ukraine, and bakers are using Baltic rye flour. Unfortunately, this is our reality,” he said.
According to the head of the industry association, the reason for the rye shortage is the unwillingness of agricultural producers to sow the crop, as its yield is one-third lower than that of wheat—40 centners per hectare versus 60 centners per hectare, respectively.
In addition, the entire deficit was previously covered by Belarus, which led to a reduction in rye production in Ukraine—it was difficult for farmers to compete with supplies from Belarus. At the same time, rye is not a popular export crop. Demand for rye is only on the domestic market.
Rybchynsky pointed out that the current price of rye is more than competitive: while in 2024, 1 ton of rye cost 6-7 thousand hryvnia, as of May 2025, it costs 12-14 thousand hryvnia.
When asked whether the rye shortage would lead to higher prices for rye bread, the expert emphasized that prices would definitely rise.
“Currently, the price of Ukrainian rye flour is 18,000 hryvnia per ton, and imported raw materials cost about 20,000 hryvnia, while last May, rye flour cost 10,000 hryvnia. It will not just be a rise in the price of rye bread—many bakery producers will simply stop baking it,” he stressed.
The head of the Ukrainian Millers Association predicts that Ukraine will experience a rye deficit in the 2025/2026 marketing year and will have to purchase it on foreign markets at European prices. This will make rye attractive to Ukrainian farmers. Therefore, in the 2026/2027 marketing year, agricultural producers will most likely increase the area under rye, which could stabilize the market situation.
