The shadow market for cigarettes continues to grow in Ukraine. In April 2025, the overall level of illegal trade in tobacco products reached 16.2% (compared to 14.1% at the beginning of 2025), according to a study by Kantar Ukraine “Monitoring of illegal trade in tobacco products in Ukraine,” published on Monday.
Kantar Ukraine specified that with this level of illegal cigarette products on the market, the annual loss to the state budget due to tax evasion amounts to UAH 25.2 billion, and the volume of the shadow cigarette market in Ukraine exceeds 5 billion cigarettes.
“In April, we again observed growth in the market for illegal tobacco products in Ukraine and a significant increase in the share of counterfeit products to 8.8% (compared to 6.4% in February 2025). According to average annual figures, more than a third of counterfeit products (39%) have signs of fake excise stamps. Among them, according to the inscription on the packaging, 33% were produced by Marshall Fine Tobacco (United Tobacco)/VK Tobacco FZE and 6% by Ukrainian Tobacco Production,” said Tatyana Sverdlik, an analyst at Kantar Ukraine.
At the same time, a significant share is accounted for by illegal products marked “Duty Free” or intended for export and illegally sold in Ukraine. More than half of such products, according to the inscription on the packaging, were produced by the Vinnikivska Tobacco Factory. Compliment (47%) and Lifa (5%) are the main brands in this category. The remaining 43% of illegal products are brands produced by Marshall Fine Tobacco, the most common of which are Marshall (26%), Urta (9%), and Brut (3%).
The study notes that the largest volumes of trade in illegal tobacco products are traditionally recorded in six regions, which together account for 71% of the market for such products Dnipropetrovsk – 27%, Odessa – 13%, Lviv – 10%, Kharkiv – 9%; Kyiv and Kyiv region – 7%, Khmelnytskyi – 6%.
A significant share of illegal tobacco product sales comes from kiosks and shops – in April 2025, 67% of illegal tobacco products were sold through these channels, according to Kantar Ukraine.
