As of February 10, Ukraine exported 78 thsd tonnes of soybeans, its reserves are estimated at 3.4 mln tonnes, which is significantly higher than the previous season, when they amounted to 2.6-2.7 mln tonnes, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
According to analysts, the situation indicates the need to intensify sales in February-April, as in May-June traders will focus on the new harvest of grain and rapeseed.
“We have enough soybeans, and it is too early to worry. However, the demand may decrease closer to spring, which will affect prices. Therefore, it is important to take this factor into account and plan sales accordingly,” they said.
The experts reminded that the situation on the global market also affects Ukrainian exports. In Brazil, harvesting is delayed due to high soybean moisture, which leads to significant losses in the fields. This could change global balances and support prices. In addition, the market is waiting for the updated USDA report, which may adjust the forecasts for production in South America.
“If the crop losses in Brazil and Argentina are confirmed, this could be an additional factor in price growth. Already, the seasonal model shows that in late February and early March we may see the level of $400-405 per ton on a CPT basis, and potentially even $410-415 per ton,” analysts predict.
According to their information, the prices for soybeans on the domestic market of Ukraine are currently stable and amount to $388-393 per ton in ports, 17 500-17 700 UAH/ton at processors.
At the same time, the main restraining factor is the weak soybean meal market, which is why processors cannot actively compete with exporters.
In the coming months, according to analysts, some traders may try to increase margins, especially in May-June, when the focus will shift to the new harvest. “We have already seen similar situations in the market, so it is important to be prepared for possible price fluctuations,” Pusk summarized.
