Standard Chartered analysts estimate that dollar-pegged stablecoins could take around $500 billion in deposits from US banks by the end of 2028, intensifying competition for funding between traditional banks and crypto infrastructure.
Regional credit institutions are considered the most vulnerable in the banking sector, as their revenues are more closely linked to net interest margins (the difference between the return on assets and the cost of deposits), so the outflow of funding has a greater impact on profitability.
The risk mechanism for banks is that the “safe layer” of money is partially transferred from deposits to tokens: payment functions and part of the transaction activity can be transferred to stablecoins, and issuers’ reserves are more often placed not in the banking system, but in US Treasury securities. In particular, according to Standard Chartered’s estimates, the largest issuers, Tether and Circle, hold the bulk of their reserves in US Treasuries, meaning that there is little “redeposit” into banks.
The accelerating factor is regulation. Reuters notes that the federal law on stablecoins passed in the US is expected to encourage their wider use; the document prohibits issuers from paying interest on stablecoins, but banks believe that there is still a “loophole” for paying returns through third parties (e.g., crypto exchanges), which intensifies competition for deposits.
If Standard Chartered’s assessment scenario is confirmed, part of the funding will shift from the banking system to the US government debt market, as the growth of stablecoins increases demand for short-term treasury bills, which are used to secure reserves.
BANK, DEPOSIT, stablecoins, US
