According to Fixygen, there are still no signs of a broad shift of capital from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies, despite periodic rallies in individual tokens and Ethereum’s strengthening.
According to CoinMarketCap data as of September 12, 2026, the Altcoin Season Index stands at about 40 points out of 100, which is significantly below the 75-point threshold at which the market is considered to have entered a full-fledged altseason. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at about 58.7%, while Ethereum’s is 11.6%.
CoinMarketCap defines altseason as a period when at least 75% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies—excluding stablecoins and certain asset-backed tokens—have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
BlockchainCenter’s alternative index also does not yet indicate an altseason: its value stands at around 33 points, while the required threshold is 75.
According to CoinGecko, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at approximately $2.76 trillion. Bitcoin remains the largest asset with a market cap of about $1.55 trillion.
Bitcoin’s high market share indicates that a significant portion of new capital continues to be concentrated in the largest and most liquid crypto asset. This trend is driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate BTC purchases, and investor caution regarding less liquid tokens.
However, this situation differs from the classic cryptocurrency cycles of previous years, when, following strong growth in Bitcoin, capital would sequentially flow first into Ethereum, then into major altcoins, and finally into more speculative assets with smaller market capitalizations.
Certain altcoins have periodically outperformed Bitcoin significantly in the current cycle as well; however, so far these have been isolated instances rather than broad-based growth across the entire segment.
Ethereum has strengthened its position in recent months: its market share has grown from about 9% three months ago to around 11%, but this is not yet enough to trigger a full-scale rotation of capital away from Bitcoin.
Bitcoin mining profitability rebounded significantly in August 2026 thanks to a sharp rise in the price of the largest cryptocurrency, but the industry’s economics remain substantially weaker than last year’s levels, according to Fixygen.
According to the monthly Luxor Hashrate Index report published on September 8, the dollar-denominated hashprice—the estimated miner’s revenue per unit of computing power—started August at $31.63 per PH/s per day and ended the month at $39.33, an increase of 24.4%.
This marked the strongest monthly growth in the metric since November 2024. On August 27, the hashprice temporarily rose above $40 for the first time in 220 days.
Bitcoin was the main driver behind the improvement in mining economics. In August, its price rose from $62,889 to $78,312, an increase of 24.5%. The average BTC price for the month increased by 8.7% to $69,263.
The average hashprice for August was $34.63, compared to $31.21 in July, an increase of 10.9%.
However, even after this recovery, profitability remains significantly lower than last year’s levels. The average August hashprice was approximately 32% lower than the 2025 average of $50.68 per PH/s per day.
Relatively stable network difficulty provided additional support to miners. In August, two adjustments nearly offset each other, and the net change amounted to approximately minus 0.34%. The average difficulty was 2% lower than in July.
However, as early as September 5, network difficulty rose by 1.31% as some of the computing power that had previously been taken offline began returning to the network. Luxor notes that mining activity is recovering following the hashrate decline in June and July.
The increase in computing power could once again put pressure on profitability. The more equipment competes for a fixed block reward, the smaller the share of revenue per unit of hashrate.
The situation also remains challenging for less efficient equipment. According to Luxor’s estimates, devices with energy efficiency of 25–38 J/TH generated an average energy yield of about $45 per MWh in August, while the average grid electricity cost was about $48 per MWh. This means that some older equipment remains at or below the break-even point.
As a result, August provided miners with a noticeable respite, but the sustainability of the recovery will depend on three factors at once: Bitcoin prices, network difficulty, and the cost of electricity.
According to Fixygen, the German Ministry of Finance has drafted a proposal to reform the taxation of crypto assets, which would introduce a 25% tax rate on profits from the sale of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies, regardless of the length of time the asset was held.
The corresponding draft bill is in the early stages of approval within the federal government, Handelsblatt reported on September 9, citing a document obtained by the publication. Germany currently remains one of the most attractive major European jurisdictions for long-term private investors in cryptocurrencies. Under current rules, profits from the sale of crypto assets held for more than one year are generally not subject to income tax. If an asset is sold within 12 months of purchase, the profit is classified as a private sale of property and taxed at the taxpayer’s individual rate. This procedure was confirmed by official clarifications from the German Ministry of Finance on March 6, 2025.
The new model is expected to fundamentally change this approach. It is proposed to reclassify crypto assets from the category of private property transactions to the category of capital gains and tax them similarly to profits from stock transactions. The base rate of the Abgeltungsteuer will be 25%. Taking into account the solidarity surcharge, the effective tax rate could reach 26.375%, excluding any potential church tax.
The proposed rules would apply only to cryptocurrency acquired after December 31, 2026. For Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets purchased earlier, the current tax regime is expected to remain in place.
The bill calls for the new rules to take effect on January 1, 2027. However, automatic tax withholding by German cryptocurrency service providers is planned to be introduced only on January 1, 2028, to give platforms time to restructure their accounting systems.
The Ministry of Finance estimates that the rule change will generate approximately EUR 160 million in additional tax revenue for the budget in 2028. In subsequent years, the amount is expected to increase and, according to the ministry’s calculations, reach approximately EUR 350 million in 2030.
The reform will effectively eliminate the main tax advantage of long-term cryptocurrency ownership in Germany. It will no longer be sufficient for an investor to hold Bitcoin or Ethereum for more than a year to fully exempt the profit from the sale from taxation.
However, a final decision has not yet been made. The Ministry of Finance’s draft is in the early stages of interagency coordination, after which the document must undergo further review by the government, the Bundestag, and the Bundesrat.
Separately, Germany is already increasing tax transparency for transactions involving digital assets. In November 2025, the Bundestag approved the implementation of the European DAC8 Directive, which requires crypto service providers to report information on certain customer transactions to tax authorities.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market in the second half of September will be primarily influenced by decisions from major central banks, U.S. consumer demand and inflation data, as well as a large-scale quarterly expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options.
The main event will be the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16. The interest rate decision will be announced on September 16. This meeting is particularly important because, along with the decision, the Fed will publish updated economic forecasts and the so-called “dot plot”—the members’ expectations regarding the future trajectory of interest rates.
Anticipation surrounding the meeting has intensified sharply following the release of August inflation data. Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core inflation stood at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. A day earlier, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a 0.4% monthly increase and a 5.4% annual increase.
Against this backdrop, the market sharply raised its expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed. Throughout September 11, futures markets priced in the probability of such a decision at approximately 82–87%, whereas just a few days before the CPI release, the Reuters consensus forecast among economists had predicted that the rate would remain at 3.50–3.75%.
For cryptocurrencies, a rate hike is traditionally an unfavorable factor: it increases the yield on dollar-denominated assets, raises the cost of borrowed capital, and reduces investors’ risk appetite. However, Bitcoin’s reaction will depend not only on the decision itself but also on the Fed’s comments. If the regulator signals that the September hike is a one-off, the market may react much more calmly than if it were seen as the start of a new tightening cycle.
U.S. retail sales data for August, which will also be released on September 16, will take on added significance ahead of the meeting. In July, this figure fell for the first time in nine months. A strong recovery in consumer spending could bolster the case for higher interest rates, while weak sales could somewhat ease investors’ concerns about further policy tightening. The release date is confirmed by the U.S. Census Bureau. (
On the same day, the BLS will release the August import and export price indices. Typically, this indicator has a much smaller impact on the market than the CPI; however, in the current situation, investors will be closely watching for signs that high prices for energy and imported goods are spilling over into U.S. inflation.
The next key factor will be the Bank of Japan. Its meeting is scheduled for September 17–18. According to a Reuters survey, the central bank is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points—to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.
For Bitcoin, the Bank of Japan’s decision is significant due to the carry trade mechanism. For many years, investors have borrowed cheap yen and invested them in more profitable and risky assets. Rising interest rates in Japan and a strengthening yen make such strategies less attractive and could lead to a reduction in leveraged positions in global markets, including cryptocurrencies. Fears of a unwinding of the yen carry trade have repeatedly been a source of heightened volatility in risky assets.
Another potential source of sharp fluctuations will be September 25, when a major quarterly expiration of cryptocurrency options takes place on Deribit. Based on calculations using exchange open interest as of September 9, approximately $14.4 billion in Bitcoin options and another roughly $1.8 billion in Ethereum options were outstanding as of that date. About 41.5% of the total open interest in Bitcoin options was concentrated in the September expiration.
An expiration date alone does not determine the market’s direction; however, such a large volume of contracts can increase short-term volatility. A study published in the September issue of *Finance Research Letters* also points to statistically significant intraday reversals in Bitcoin prices during option expiration periods, especially when large positions held by market makers are present.
On September 29, the market will receive the August JOLTS report on U.S. job openings. Following a strong August jobs report—which showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.1%—the state of the labor market has become yet another argument for proponents of a more hawkish Fed policy. An unexpectedly high number of job openings could put pressure back on Bitcoin due to rising U.S. bond yields.
But the most important data following the Fed meeting will be released on September 30. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will simultaneously publish the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and data on Americans’ personal income and spending for August. This report contains the PCE price index—the primary inflation measure the Fed uses as a guide.
If the PCE shows rising inflationary pressure following the CPI and PPI, expectations for additional rate hikes by the end of the year could intensify. For Bitcoin, such a scenario would mean continued pressure from high bond yields and a strong dollar. Conversely, a weaker PCE could bring back market expectations that monetary tightening is coming to an end.
The situation is complicated by rising oil prices. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds approached 5% on September 11—its highest level since 2023—as high oil prices intensified fears of a new wave of inflation.
In addition, on September 10, the European Central Bank raised its key rates by 25 basis points: the deposit rate will be 2.50% starting September 16. The ECB directly linked this decision to persistent inflationary pressures, particularly due to the conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices.
Thus, the second half of September is shaping up to be a period of heightened macroeconomic risk for the crypto market. Over the next two weeks, investors will sequentially see the Fed’s decision, a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan, a major quarterly expiration of crypto options, U.S. labor market data, and the key PCE inflation index.
In the base case scenario, the cost of global liquidity remains the key factor for Bitcoin. If the Fed and the Bank of Japan simultaneously tighten policy, and inflation in the U.S. remains high, pressure on risk assets may persist. However, if the Fed signals that rate hikes are nearing the end of the cycle, and the PCE shows a slowdown in price growth, the market may find a reason to rebound by the end of September.
The key indicator following each data release will be not only the figure itself but also the reaction of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar: if they continue to rise, it will be more difficult for cryptocurrencies to regain ground, whereas a decline in yields and the dollar’s exchange rate could draw capital back into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other risky assets.
According to Fixygen, the value of cryptocurrencies held on the balance sheets of public companies has reached approximately $123 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for over 81% of corporate digital reserves.
According to The Block’s Corporate Crypto Treasury Tracker as of September 10, 2026, the database lists 119 public companies, of which 109 hold active cryptocurrency reserves. The total value of their digital assets is estimated at approximately $123 billion.
Bitcoin accounts for about $99.8 billion, or 81.1% of the total. Public companies that use Bitcoin as their primary digital reserve asset collectively control about 1.274 million BTC.
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains the undisputed leader. As of September 7, the company held 845.05 thousand BTC. $63.73 billion was spent to acquire this amount, and the average purchase price was approximately $75,400 per Bitcoin. Strategy disclosed this information on September 8 in a Form 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
According to The Block’s current estimate, the value of Bitcoin on MicroStrategy’s balance sheet exceeds $66 billion. Thus, a single company accounts for approximately two-thirds of the value of corporate Bitcoin reserves tracked by the index.
Other major holders include Twenty One Capital with 43,514 thousand BTC, Japan’s Metaplanet with 43 thousand BTC, and mining company MARA with 35,303 thousand BTC. Another approximately 30 thousand BTC belongs to Cantor Equity Partners I, an entity linked to the upcoming BSTR deal.
The second-largest corporate cryptocurrency position after Strategy is no longer Bitcoin, but Ethereum. BitMine Immersion Technologies has accumulated nearly 5.93 million ETH worth approximately $14.7 billion.
The expansion of corporate crypto reserves means that digital assets are gradually transforming from a tool primarily used by private crypto investors into a separate line item on the balance sheets of public companies.
At the same time, the digital reserve strategy creates additional market risk. The stock prices of such companies are beginning to depend simultaneously on their core business, the value of the cryptocurrency they hold, capital-raising conditions, and the premium or discount to the value of crypto assets at which the stock market values the company.
Data source: Corporate Crypto Treasury Tracker
According to Fixygen, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $986.9 million in net inflows for the week ending September 4, extending their streak of positive weeks to three in a row.
According to SoSoValue data cited by The Block, inflows increased compared to $924.5 million the previous week. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the way, attracting $691.5 million over the week.
Meanwhile, on September 3, net inflows into all U.S. Bitcoin ETFs reached $730.9 million, marking the highest daily figure since mid-January. The following day, the funds received an additional $174.6 million.
Bitcoin ETF trading volume for the week totaled $14.5 billion, compared to nearly $19 billion the week before. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $218.4 million, also marking their third consecutive week of positive inflows. Their trading volume totaled $4.1 billion.
Overall, August was one of the strongest months for institutional crypto products in the past year. Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached $3.52 billion—the highest since September 2025—while Ethereum ETFs received $1.85 billion, marking their best monthly performance since August of last year.
The shift in sentiment was even more pronounced in the third week of August, when Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.9 billion, Ethereum ETFs—$697.2 million, and the combined turnover of both categories more than tripled—to $29 billion.
However, inflows remain uneven. Following a strong previous week, approximately $46.6 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs on September 8. Thus, institutional demand has resumed, but investors remain sensitive to macroeconomic data and expectations regarding U.S. interest rates.
Bitcoin itself corrected after rising above $81,000. According to CoinGecko, on September 9, it was trading at around $78,300, and the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization stood at approximately $1.58 trillion.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to gain exchange-traded exposure to Bitcoin without having to store the cryptocurrency themselves. The largest players in the U.S. market are BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, ARK/21Shares, and Bitwise.
Data source — SoSoValue/The Block: Bitcoin ETF flow data
