According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market in the second half of September will be primarily influenced by decisions from major central banks, U.S. consumer demand and inflation data, as well as a large-scale quarterly expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options.
The main event will be the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16. The interest rate decision will be announced on September 16. This meeting is particularly important because, along with the decision, the Fed will publish updated economic forecasts and the so-called “dot plot”—the members’ expectations regarding the future trajectory of interest rates.
Anticipation surrounding the meeting has intensified sharply following the release of August inflation data. Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core inflation stood at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. A day earlier, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a 0.4% monthly increase and a 5.4% annual increase.
Against this backdrop, the market sharply raised its expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed. Throughout September 11, futures markets priced in the probability of such a decision at approximately 82–87%, whereas just a few days before the CPI release, the Reuters consensus forecast among economists had predicted that the rate would remain at 3.50–3.75%.
For cryptocurrencies, a rate hike is traditionally an unfavorable factor: it increases the yield on dollar-denominated assets, raises the cost of borrowed capital, and reduces investors’ risk appetite. However, Bitcoin’s reaction will depend not only on the decision itself but also on the Fed’s comments. If the regulator signals that the September hike is a one-off, the market may react much more calmly than if it were seen as the start of a new tightening cycle.
U.S. retail sales data for August, which will also be released on September 16, will take on added significance ahead of the meeting. In July, this figure fell for the first time in nine months. A strong recovery in consumer spending could bolster the case for higher interest rates, while weak sales could somewhat ease investors’ concerns about further policy tightening. The release date is confirmed by the U.S. Census Bureau. (
On the same day, the BLS will release the August import and export price indices. Typically, this indicator has a much smaller impact on the market than the CPI; however, in the current situation, investors will be closely watching for signs that high prices for energy and imported goods are spilling over into U.S. inflation.
The next key factor will be the Bank of Japan. Its meeting is scheduled for September 17–18. According to a Reuters survey, the central bank is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points—to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.
For Bitcoin, the Bank of Japan’s decision is significant due to the carry trade mechanism. For many years, investors have borrowed cheap yen and invested them in more profitable and risky assets. Rising interest rates in Japan and a strengthening yen make such strategies less attractive and could lead to a reduction in leveraged positions in global markets, including cryptocurrencies. Fears of a unwinding of the yen carry trade have repeatedly been a source of heightened volatility in risky assets.
Another potential source of sharp fluctuations will be September 25, when a major quarterly expiration of cryptocurrency options takes place on Deribit. Based on calculations using exchange open interest as of September 9, approximately $14.4 billion in Bitcoin options and another roughly $1.8 billion in Ethereum options were outstanding as of that date. About 41.5% of the total open interest in Bitcoin options was concentrated in the September expiration.
An expiration date alone does not determine the market’s direction; however, such a large volume of contracts can increase short-term volatility. A study published in the September issue of *Finance Research Letters* also points to statistically significant intraday reversals in Bitcoin prices during option expiration periods, especially when large positions held by market makers are present.
On September 29, the market will receive the August JOLTS report on U.S. job openings. Following a strong August jobs report—which showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.1%—the state of the labor market has become yet another argument for proponents of a more hawkish Fed policy. An unexpectedly high number of job openings could put pressure back on Bitcoin due to rising U.S. bond yields.
But the most important data following the Fed meeting will be released on September 30. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will simultaneously publish the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and data on Americans’ personal income and spending for August. This report contains the PCE price index—the primary inflation measure the Fed uses as a guide.
If the PCE shows rising inflationary pressure following the CPI and PPI, expectations for additional rate hikes by the end of the year could intensify. For Bitcoin, such a scenario would mean continued pressure from high bond yields and a strong dollar. Conversely, a weaker PCE could bring back market expectations that monetary tightening is coming to an end.
The situation is complicated by rising oil prices. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds approached 5% on September 11—its highest level since 2023—as high oil prices intensified fears of a new wave of inflation.
In addition, on September 10, the European Central Bank raised its key rates by 25 basis points: the deposit rate will be 2.50% starting September 16. The ECB directly linked this decision to persistent inflationary pressures, particularly due to the conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices.
Thus, the second half of September is shaping up to be a period of heightened macroeconomic risk for the crypto market. Over the next two weeks, investors will sequentially see the Fed’s decision, a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan, a major quarterly expiration of crypto options, U.S. labor market data, and the key PCE inflation index.
In the base case scenario, the cost of global liquidity remains the key factor for Bitcoin. If the Fed and the Bank of Japan simultaneously tighten policy, and inflation in the U.S. remains high, pressure on risk assets may persist. However, if the Fed signals that rate hikes are nearing the end of the cycle, and the PCE shows a slowdown in price growth, the market may find a reason to rebound by the end of September.
The key indicator following each data release will be not only the figure itself but also the reaction of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar: if they continue to rise, it will be more difficult for cryptocurrencies to regain ground, whereas a decline in yields and the dollar’s exchange rate could draw capital back into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other risky assets.
According to Fixygen, the value of cryptocurrencies held on the balance sheets of public companies has reached approximately $123 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for over 81% of corporate digital reserves.
According to The Block’s Corporate Crypto Treasury Tracker as of September 10, 2026, the database lists 119 public companies, of which 109 hold active cryptocurrency reserves. The total value of their digital assets is estimated at approximately $123 billion.
Bitcoin accounts for about $99.8 billion, or 81.1% of the total. Public companies that use Bitcoin as their primary digital reserve asset collectively control about 1.274 million BTC.
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains the undisputed leader. As of September 7, the company held 845.05 thousand BTC. $63.73 billion was spent to acquire this amount, and the average purchase price was approximately $75,400 per Bitcoin. Strategy disclosed this information on September 8 in a Form 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
According to The Block’s current estimate, the value of Bitcoin on MicroStrategy’s balance sheet exceeds $66 billion. Thus, a single company accounts for approximately two-thirds of the value of corporate Bitcoin reserves tracked by the index.
Other major holders include Twenty One Capital with 43,514 thousand BTC, Japan’s Metaplanet with 43 thousand BTC, and mining company MARA with 35,303 thousand BTC. Another approximately 30 thousand BTC belongs to Cantor Equity Partners I, an entity linked to the upcoming BSTR deal.
The second-largest corporate cryptocurrency position after Strategy is no longer Bitcoin, but Ethereum. BitMine Immersion Technologies has accumulated nearly 5.93 million ETH worth approximately $14.7 billion.
The expansion of corporate crypto reserves means that digital assets are gradually transforming from a tool primarily used by private crypto investors into a separate line item on the balance sheets of public companies.
At the same time, the digital reserve strategy creates additional market risk. The stock prices of such companies are beginning to depend simultaneously on their core business, the value of the cryptocurrency they hold, capital-raising conditions, and the premium or discount to the value of crypto assets at which the stock market values the company.
Data source: Corporate Crypto Treasury Tracker
According to Fixygen, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $986.9 million in net inflows for the week ending September 4, extending their streak of positive weeks to three in a row.
According to SoSoValue data cited by The Block, inflows increased compared to $924.5 million the previous week. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the way, attracting $691.5 million over the week.
Meanwhile, on September 3, net inflows into all U.S. Bitcoin ETFs reached $730.9 million, marking the highest daily figure since mid-January. The following day, the funds received an additional $174.6 million.
Bitcoin ETF trading volume for the week totaled $14.5 billion, compared to nearly $19 billion the week before. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $218.4 million, also marking their third consecutive week of positive inflows. Their trading volume totaled $4.1 billion.
Overall, August was one of the strongest months for institutional crypto products in the past year. Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached $3.52 billion—the highest since September 2025—while Ethereum ETFs received $1.85 billion, marking their best monthly performance since August of last year.
The shift in sentiment was even more pronounced in the third week of August, when Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.9 billion, Ethereum ETFs—$697.2 million, and the combined turnover of both categories more than tripled—to $29 billion.
However, inflows remain uneven. Following a strong previous week, approximately $46.6 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs on September 8. Thus, institutional demand has resumed, but investors remain sensitive to macroeconomic data and expectations regarding U.S. interest rates.
Bitcoin itself corrected after rising above $81,000. According to CoinGecko, on September 9, it was trading at around $78,300, and the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization stood at approximately $1.58 trillion.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to gain exchange-traded exposure to Bitcoin without having to store the cryptocurrency themselves. The largest players in the U.S. market are BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, ARK/21Shares, and Bitwise.
Data source — SoSoValue/The Block: Bitcoin ETF flow data
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the first week of September on an uptrend after significant volatility at the start of the week: Bitcoin has returned above the $81,000 mark, Ethereum has approached $2,500, and the total market capitalization has risen to approximately $2.81 trillion. The main driver of this movement was a shift in expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy.
According to CoinGecko, as of midday on September 4, Bitcoin was trading at around $81,000, Ethereum at around $2,500, XRP at $1.44–1.45, and Solana at around $104. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stood at approximately $2.81 trillion, having increased by about 4.5% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin accounted for about 58% of the market capitalization, while Ethereum accounted for about 11%.
The week started off much weaker. On August 31, Bitcoin was trading at around $78,600; on September 1–2, it fell to $77,000, but then rebounded sharply. On the night of September 4, the price rose to approximately $82,200—a high not seen in more than three months. Thus, compared to the start of the week, BTC has risen in price by about 3%, although the change over the past seven days remains significantly more modest—about 1%. (CoinGecko)
The main reason for the new surge was statements by Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller. Speaking on September 3, he said he was prepared to support keeping the interest rate at its current level if incoming data confirmed a further slowdown in inflation. At the same time, Waller did not rule out a rate hike if August inflation accelerates again. Following his remarks, pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields eased, which supported risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum showed more subdued price action throughout the week. After reaching a level of around $2,470 on August 31, ETH fell below $2,400, then recovered to approximately $2,500. XRP, after falling to $1.35, rose again to about $1.45, while Solana climbed above $100. On a seven-day basis, Ethereum and XRP are roughly flat, while Solana is down about 3%.
U.S. spot ETFs remain a key support factor for Bitcoin. Following a net outflow of about $236.5 million on September 1, the funds received about $101 million on September 2, and preliminary data for September 3 already indicates approximately $277 million in inflows.
In August, the total inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs was estimated at approximately $3.52 billion. However, capital flows remain volatile and do not yet indicate a return to a sustained series of daily purchases.
The situation in the Ethereum market is less clear-cut. On September 2, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of about $48 million, breaking a streak of 12 trading sessions with inflows, during which the funds attracted about $1.62 billion. This partly explains ETH’s weaker performance compared to Bitcoin in early September.
Among large and mid-cap cryptocurrencies, Zcash stood out as the most notable exception this week: according to CoinDesk, as of September 4, the coin had risen by approximately 20% over seven days and about 15% over the past 24 hours. Hyperliquid also significantly outperformed most major crypto assets.
In the coming days, the market will remain primarily dependent on U.S. macroeconomic data. On September 4, the U.S. Department of Labor is set to release the August employment report, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on September 11. These figures will be particularly important ahead of the Fed meeting on September 15–16. The official BLS calendar confirms the release of August labor market data on September 4 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11.
The base case scenario for Bitcoin in the near term is that it will remain within a range of approximately $76,000–$83,000. The $76,000–$77,000 zone acted as support several times earlier this week, while the $82,000 level has already become the nearest resistance. A sustained move above $82,000–$83,000, coupled with continued capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, could pave the way toward the $85,000–$88,000 level. In the event of strong U.S. inflation or labor market data that once again increases the likelihood of a Fed rate hike, a return to the $76,000–78,000 range becomes the most likely scenario. A break below this support level would significantly worsen the short-term technical picture.
For Ethereum, the $2,400–$2,550 range remains key. A confident break above $2,550 could allow the market to test $2,700–$2,800; however, this would require not only a rise in Bitcoin but also a resumption of a steady inflow of capital into the Ethereum ETF. If sentiment deteriorates, a pullback below $2,400 will once again bring the $2,250–2,300 zone into focus.
Thus, the first week of September has not yet become a full-fledged continuation of August’s strong rally. Rather, the market has entered a phase of testing the levels reached: Bitcoin appears stronger than most major altcoins, institutional demand remains steady, but capital flows through ETFs are volatile. The main drivers for the crypto market over the next two weeks will be U.S. inflation, the Fed’s decision, and Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $82,000.
According to Fixygen, public companies worldwide control approximately 1.264 million BTC worth nearly $99 billion, as reported by The Block’s Bitcoin Treasury Tracker as of the end of August.
The largest holders:
Strategy — 840,447 BTC
Twenty One Capital — 43,514 BTC
Metaplanet — 43,000 BTC
MARA — 35,303 BTC
Cantor Equity Partners I / future BSTR — 30,021 BTC
Galaxy Digital — 25,723 BTC
Bullish — 24,400 BTC
Strive — 19,999 BTC
SpaceX — 18,712 BTC
Riot Platforms — 15,680 BTC.
Separately, Coinbase holds 15,389 BTC, Tesla — 11,509 BTC, and Block — 9,032 BTC.
The main feature of the ranking is its extreme concentration. A single strategy accounts for about two-thirds of all BTC held by the tracked public companies.
Companies that built their investment strategies around accumulating Bitcoin have lost over $80 billion in market capitalization since this model peaked in popularity in the summer of 2025.
According to Financial Times calculations, the combined market capitalization of the 50 largest Bitcoin treasury companies fell from approximately $150 billion in July 2025 to $67 billion in August 2026.
The model gained popularity thanks to Michael Saylor’s Strategy. Companies issued stocks or debt securities, used the raised funds to buy Bitcoin, and expected the market to value them higher than the cost of the cryptocurrency on their balance sheets.
As long as Bitcoin was rising, this scheme allowed companies to raise new capital in a virtually endless cycle. But BTC’s drop of about 30% from its October 2025 high disrupted the mechanism.
According to the FT, the shares of 35 companies in the group studied lost more than half their value. Some market participants have already begun selling part of their crypto reserves to service their debts.
In effect, the market has stopped automatically paying a premium simply for having Bitcoin on a company’s balance sheet. Investors are now much more closely scrutinizing a company’s debt, the cost of raising capital, and the business’s ability to fund payments without selling cryptocurrency.
