This week (December 15-21), the crypto market experienced fluctuations without a clear trend: after a slump at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin remained in the $87-89 thousand range, and investors switched back to a wait-and-see mode due to the macro agenda, mixed dynamics of ETF flows, and a seasonal decline in liquidity ahead of the holidays.
Bitcoin gained about 1.6% (at closing) between December 15 and December 21, but there was a noticeable V-shaped movement during the week: selling pressure in the $85,000–86,000 range was offset by rebounds to $88,000–89,000.
Ethereum remained virtually unchanged over the same period (close to zero at closing), staying around the $3,000 mark, but with noticeable intraday fluctuations.
Sentiment remained subdued: fear and greed indices showed “Extreme Fear” for most of the week, which usually amplifies sharp movements in a thin market.
The key external factor was expectations regarding US interest rates and year-end risk-off sentiment. In December, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5-3.75%, while the market interpreted its rhetoric as more cautious about further steps.
Against this backdrop, any hint of a pause or a tighter rate trajectory weighed on risk appetite, as evidenced by the reaction of crypto assets at the beginning of the “last full week of the year.”
The second theme is institutional flows. According to reports and market news, there were inflows and noticeable outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs during the week (investors often “close” risk or lock in results at the end of the year), which added volatility and increased dependence on news.
The third line is that “traditional finance” continues to tokenize, but this is still more of an infrastructure trend than an immediate price driver. For example, JPMorgan announced the launch of a tokenized money market fund on the Ethereum blockchain, supporting the long-term narrative around real assets on-chain.
Even during a calm week in terms of prices, reminders of the risks were loud and clear: research on crypto crime and isolated incidents in DeFi underscore that “operational risk” (vulnerabilities, deployment errors, key management) remains a key vulnerability for the industry.
Fixygen’s short-term forecast until the end of 2025
Until December 31, the base scenario is sideways movement with an increased likelihood of sharp spikes due to low liquidity during the holidays and reduced institutional activity. Important triggers for the rest of the year are ETF flow dynamics, any surprises from US macro statistics and Fed rhetoric, plus local stories about major players in the public market (there is also growing attention around the classification of companies with large crypto reserves).
Regarding risks: during the “holidays,” the influence of thin trading and liquidations increases — movements may be disproportionate to the news.
The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure in early December 2025 after a sharp decline in November, but has shown signs of stabilization in recent days: Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in the $90,000–92,000 range, remaining approximately 25–30% below its historic October high of over $120,000.
According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market on December 6–8 is about $3 trillion, which is significantly lower than the peak values of the fall, against the backdrop of the “December reckoning” — a continuation of the sell-off that began in November and intensified due to investors exiting spot Bitcoin ETFs and the unwinding of excess leverage.
Ethereum (ETH) is holding above $3,000 – around $3,100 – and looks stronger than Bitcoin in early December: a number of reviews note the local leadership of ETH and some of the major altcoins amid a recovery from November’s decline. Analysts admit the possibility of a move to $3,500–3,900 if the overall improvement in sentiment continues, although they emphasize that this requires maintaining the $3,000 mark as key support.
Among the factors determining the dynamics of December, market participants highlight, on the one hand, expectations of a 25 bp cut in the US Fed rate (probability of about 85-90%), which traditionally supports demand for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, and, on the other hand, continued pressure from long-term holders who are taking profits and institutional players who are reducing their positions after the record rally of 2025.
The forecast for the end of 2025, according to analysts’ estimates, is cautiously neutral. For Bitcoin, the key range in the short term is considered to be $82,000–100,000: a breakout and consolidation above the psychological level of $100,000 could pave the way for a recovery towards $110,000–120,000, while failure to stay above $86–88 thousand will again increase the risks of a rollback to the lower part of the range.
For Ethereum, the baseline scenario assumes trading in the range of approximately $2.8–3.6 thousand, with possible attempts to break above it if global risk appetite improves.
Experts emphasize that the end of the year will be marked by increased volatility: the market is essentially completing a painful “reset” of excessive leverage and speculative positions. This creates the conditions for more sustainable growth in 2026 based on institutional demand, tokenization of real assets, and further clarification of regulations. However, in the last weeks of 2025, investors should be prepared for sharp intraday price fluctuations, according to analysts.
The cryptocurrency market is starting December on a downward note: Bitcoin and leading altcoins are showing a sharp decline amid global market volatility and local shocks in the DeFi sector.
What is happening on December 1
According to CoinMarketCap and other analytical platforms, the total capitalization of the crypto market fell to approximately $2.9–3.0 trillion on December 1, losing about 5% over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin (BTC): trading in the $86,000–87,000 range, with a daily decline of about 4–5%; during the day, the price fell to a low of about $85,500, while the day before it fluctuated around $90,000.
Ethereum (ETH):
remains in the $2,800–2,850 range, with a daily decline of 5–6%, while the coin has already retreated by almost a quarter from its recent local highs in November.
Among the major altcoins, the following are suffering the most:
BNB – around $825–830 (down ~5%),
Solana (SOL) – around $126–127 (down ~7%),
XRP – around $2.0–2.05 (down ~7%).
Speculative memecoins (SHIB, PEPE, BONK, WIF, etc.) are losing 6% to 10–13% per day, which fits the traditional scenario: the riskiest assets fall faster than the market in phases of sharp risk aversion.
Analytical reports from the largest crypto exchanges and specialized media highlight several key factors behind today’s pullback.
1. Liquidation of leveraged positions in a thin weekend market
Decreased liquidity over the weekend and at the beginning of the week allowed relatively small orders to push the price of Bitcoin down by several thousand dollars in a matter of minutes.
This triggered a cascade of liquidations of overleveraged long positions on futures platforms — estimates suggest that the volume of forced long closures exceeded $600–700 million in a few hours.
2. Exploit in DeFi and growing nervousness about security
In the decentralized finance sector, there was an incident with the Yearn Finance protocol’s yETH pool: the leak was relatively small by market standards, but it came at a “delicate” time and reinforced mistrust of complex income-generating products.
Some participants used this as an excuse to reduce their positions in riskier tokens and DeFi assets.
3. Macrofon: Japan, the Fed, and a general reassessment of risk
At the same time, investors are awaiting the US Fed meeting on December 9–10: futures markets are pricing in a high probability of a rate cut, but uncertainty surrounding the pace of policy easing is keeping nerves on edge.
4. ETF fund flows and profit-taking by large players
After months of active inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, November saw a wave of net outflows worth billions of dollars, which spurred sales.
On-chain data and derivatives show that large holders (whales) are gradually hedging their risks or reducing their longs, while retail investors entered the market late in the bullish momentum.
Additionally, new regulatory initiatives are weighing on sentiment, in particular Japan’s plan to impose a flat 20% tax on cryptocurrency income, which makes the market more “similar” to the traditional one, but at the same time reduces its attractiveness for some speculators.
A separate technical signal: according to CoinDesk, on the monthly Bitcoin chart, the MACD indicator has turned red for the first time in a long time, which in previous cycles was accompanied by either protracted corrections or the formation of a medium-term bearish trend.
What does this mean for the market now?
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s dominance in market capitalization remains at around 58-59%, and the “altcoin season” index remains in the “Bitcoin season” zone, meaning that altcoins have been lagging behind BTC on average in recent months.
US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing in Bitcoin have faced an outflow of $3.5 billion in investor funds since the beginning of this month, according to Bloomberg calculations. The record outflow in a single month was set in February this year and amounted to $3.6 billion. With one week left in November, this record could be broken.
In particular, investors withdrew $2.2 billion from the largest Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, managed by BlackRock.
The price of Bitcoin fell 2.6% on Monday to $85,700. Since the beginning of the year, the cryptocurrency has fallen in price by about 7%.
Citi Research analysts note that the outflow of funds from ETFs exacerbates the negative dynamics of the cryptocurrency, while the inflow of funds accelerates its growth. According to their calculations, an outflow of $1 billion from funds investing in Bitcoin leads to a 3.4% decline in the value of Bitcoin itself, and vice versa.
From November 3 to 8, 2025, the crypto market experienced a sharp decline and subsequent partial stabilization. Bitcoin fell to the $99–101 thousand range on November 4 and closed the week near $106–107 thousand, remaining below recent highs.
Drivers of the week. The market started with a decline on November 3–4 amid cautious signals from the Fed and increased appetite for profit-taking after a weak October. According to media estimates, the beginning of November brought a continued decline in major coins, with Bitcoin falling about 18% from its recent record high.
Bitcoin ETFs in the US recorded net outflows on certain days of the week. On November 3, 4, and 6-7, there were negative cumulative flows, which put pressure on the price.
Ethereum was volatile following the market. On November 3–4, ETH fell by almost 9% per day, then partially recovered and traded at around $3,400–3,450 on November 8.
Funds and events. Publications noted that uncertainty about interest rates and geopolitics had dampened risk appetite. At the same time, interest in crypto-based products remained strong in the sector, including discussions of new exchange-traded funds, which supports medium-term expectations.
The week’s results for key indicators are as follows:
1) BTC range on November 3–8: maximum around $111 thousand on November 3, minimum around $99 thousand on November 4.
2) ETF flows: net outflows on certain days, including November 4 and November 6–7.
3) ETH range: $3,060–3,650, closing the week at around $3,440 on November 8.
The basis for forecasts and their scenarios is neutral-volatile. Support for BTC is visible in the range of $98–101 thousand, and maintaining it preserves the chances for consolidation and attempts to grow to $110–114 thousand. Risks are associated with continued outflows from ETFs and a general rotation in risk assets. An increase in inflows into funds and the absence of negative news regarding regulators could return the price to the upper limit of the range. If $98,000 is broken downwards, the risk of acceleration to $92–95,000 increases, with a subsequent search for a new balance. Estimates are based on price dynamics and ETF flows on November 3–8.
The cryptocurrency Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark for the first time since spring 2025.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin fell to around $99,954 on a number of crypto exchanges before partially recovering to above $101,000. The last time the cryptocurrency traded below six figures was in May.
Since setting a new record high above $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin has already fallen by more than 20%.
What is happening is the result of a number of circumstances.
There are now increasing outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to Bitcoin: since October 29, there have been outflows of about $1.3 billion from spot Bitcoin funds.
In addition, there are macroeconomic factors, including growing uncertainty surrounding the actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and expectations regarding interest rates.
The cryptocurrency market is currently facing a phase of increased volatility. Many investors and analysts are wondering whether a local correction point has been reached or whether the decline will continue. Some forecasts consider the possibility of a decline to the $75,000 range in the absence of liquidity inflows.
