Benchmark oil prices are rising moderately on Wednesday morning, as investors assess US inflation data and await the weekly report on fuel stocks in the country.
The price of January futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 7:10 a.m. is $82.7 per barrel, which is $0.23 (0.28%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Tuesday, these contracts fell by 5 cents to $82.47 per barrel.
Quotes for December futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by $0.18 (0.23%) to $78.44 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they remained unchanged at $78.26 per barrel.
The rate of growth of consumer prices (CPI) in the United States in October decreased to 3.2% in annual terms from 3.7% in September, the Labor Department reported. Core inflation (CPI Core), which excludes food and energy prices, slowed to 4% from 4.1% a month earlier. The consensus forecast of experts surveyed by Trading Economics envisaged a weakening of inflation to 3.3% and a continued growth rate of the CPI Core index at 4.1%.
Data on inflation dynamics is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) when making decisions on monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the day before, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 by 113 thousand barrels per day (bpd) to 2.367 million bpd. Thus, the organization expects global demand to reach 101.96 million bpd this year.
Market participants are also assessing signals about changes in energy reserves in the United States.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), last week the US stocks increased by 1.34 million barrels. A week earlier, reserves jumped by 11.9 million barrels.
Official data from the Energy Ministry will be published at 16:30 on Wednesday, and in two weeks at once. Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics predict that they will show an increase in oil reserves by 1.8 million barrels.
Oil prices are falling on Tuesday after a slight rise in the previous session amid decisions by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary production cuts.
The cost of January futures for Brent crude oil on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:10 a.m. on Tuesday amounted to $84.77 per barrel, which is $0.41 (0.48%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Monday, the price of these contracts rose by $0.29 (0.3%) to $85.18 per barrel.
December futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by $0.36 (0.45%) to $80.46 per barrel by this time. As a result of the previous trading, the value of these contracts increased by $0.31 (0.4%) to $80.82 per barrel.
The market is under pressure from fears of a weakening global economy and, consequently, oil demand. “Weak economic expectations are holding back the oil market and justifying the position of OPEC+ countries limiting production,” OANDA analyst Craig Earlam said, as quoted by Market Watch.
Last weekend, it became known that Saudi Arabia decided not to change the volume of voluntary oil production cuts and will keep it at 1 million bpd until the end of 2023.
In December, Riyadh may review the parameters of the restrictions to make a decision either to deepen the reduction or to increase production, the Saudi state agency reported on Sunday, citing an official source in the country’s Energy Ministry.
Saudi state-owned Saudi Aramco said on Monday that it will keep the price of the main grade of oil supplied to Asia, Arab Light, unchanged in December. The price of this grade for Asian buyers has been rising for five months in a row.
The Russian Federation will extend until the end of December 2023 an additional voluntary reduction in the supply of oil and oil products to world markets by 300 thousand barrels per day, which came into effect in September and October 2023.
Oil prices are rising on Monday after a sharp decline last week.
The cost of January futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:10 a.m. on Monday amounted to $85.3 per barrel, which is $0.41 (0.48%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, the price of these contracts fell by $1.96 (2.3%) to $84.89 per barrel.
December futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.5 (0.62%) to $81.01 per barrel by this time. As a result of the previous trading, the value of these contracts fell by $1.95 (2.4%) to $80.51 per barrel.
Last week, Brent lost 4.8%, WTI – 5.9%, according to Dow Jones.
Concerns about the escalating conflict in the Middle East have eased somewhat, and traders’ attention has shifted to the prospects for oil supply and demand on the global market, Market Watch notes.
On Sunday, the Saudi state agency reported, citing an official source in the Ministry of Energy, that the country would not change the volume of voluntary oil production cuts, and would keep it at 1 million bpd until the end of 2023. At the same time, the source noted that in December, Saudi Arabia will review the parameters of the restrictions in order to make a decision either to deepen the reduction or increase production.
Oil prices are falling on Monday, despite Israel’s expansion of ground operations in the Gaza Strip, to which Iran has already responded with threats.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced over the weekend that the country’s authorities had decided to move to the second phase of the operation, which will involve more troops directly in the Gaza Strip. Earlier, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a series of raids in the Gaza Strip.
Oil prices are falling as Israel “seems to be taking a cautious approach to the situation, which gives hope that the worst-case scenario of the conflict will not materialize,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. Investors, however, should remember “that this is likely to be a long and protracted conflict,” the expert said, as quoted by Market Watch.
The cost of December futures for Brent crude oil on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:15 a.m. on Monday is $89.27 per barrel, which is $1.21 (1.34%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, the price of these contracts increased by $2.55 (2.9%) to $90.48 per barrel.
December futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by $1.3 (1.52%) to $84.24 per barrel by this time. As a result of the previous trading, the value of these contracts increased by $2.33 (2.8%) to $85.54 per barrel.
Over the past week, Brent fell by 1.8% and WTI by 2.9%.
Investors are most concerned about the possibility of Iran’s direct involvement in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Tougher sanctions on Iranian oil could lead to a reduction in the supply of raw materials on the market by 1 million barrels per day. If the conflict escalates, the country could threaten transportation hubs and oil infrastructure in the region, Market Watch notes.
Die Ölpreise steigen am Freitag und beenden die Woche aufgrund der eskalierenden Situation im Nahen Osten im Plus.
Der Preis für Dezember-Futures der Sorte Brent an der Londoner ICE-Futures-Börse lag am Freitag um 8.10 Uhr bei 86,65 $ pro Barrel und damit um 0,65 $ (0,76 %) höher als zum Ende der vorangegangenen Sitzung. Am Donnerstag war der Preis für diese Kontrakte um $ 0,18 (0,2 %) auf $ 86 pro Barrel gestiegen.
Die November-Futures für WTI im elektronischen Handel an der New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) stiegen bis zu diesem Zeitpunkt um $ 0,79 (0,95 %) auf $ 83,7 je Barrel. Im vorangegangenen Handel sank der Wert dieser Kontrakte um $ 0,58 (0,7 %) auf $ 82,91 pro Barrel.
Seit Beginn dieser Woche ist der Preis für Brent um 2,4 % und für WTI um mehr als 1 % gestiegen, was auf die Befürchtung zurückzuführen ist, dass die Lieferungen aus dem Nahen Osten zurückgehen könnten, da der Konflikt in der Region nach dem Angriff der Hamas auf Israel eskaliert.
Daten über einen starken Anstieg der US-Öllagerbestände und Rekordfördermengen führten am Donnerstag zu einem Rückgang des WTI-Preises. Die geopolitischen Risiken sowie die Prognosen über das Wachstum der weltweiten Ölnachfrage stützen den Markt jedoch weiterhin.
“Der Konflikt im Nahen Osten wird den Ölmarkt so lange beunruhigen, wie die Welt auf Erdölprodukte angewiesen ist”, sagte Tyler Ritchie, Herausgeber von Sevens Report Research.
“Solange es keinen Waffenstillstand gibt, was hoffentlich bald der Fall sein wird, wird der Aufwärtsdruck auf den Ölmarkt anhalten”, so der Market Watch Experte.
Wie das US-Energieministerium am Donnerstag mitteilte, stiegen die kommerziellen Ölvorräte in den USA in der Woche zum 6. Oktober um 10,18 Millionen Barrel. Die Ölproduktion des Landes stieg in der vergangenen Woche um 300 Tausend Barrel pro Tag (bpd) auf einen Rekordwert von 13,2 Millionen bpd.
Am 12. Oktober revidierte die Internationale Energieagentur (IEA) ihre Prognose für die weltweite Ölnachfrage im Jahr 2023 nach oben und erwartet nun einen Anstieg um 2,254 Millionen Barrel pro Tag (bpd) und nicht mehr wie zuvor gemeldet um 2,243 Millionen bpd.
Die OPEC ihrerseits prognostiziert einen Anstieg der Ölnachfrage um 2,44 Millionen Barrel pro Tag im Jahr 2023 und 2,25 Millionen Barrel pro Tag im Jahr 2024.
Oil prices are recovering on Friday after updating their lows since August in the previous session.
The cost of December futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:09 a.m. on Friday is $84.2 per barrel, which is $0.13 (0.15%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Thursday, the price of these contracts fell by $1.74 (2%) to $84.07 per barrel, the lowest since August 24.
Futures for WTI for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen by $0.21 (0.26%) to $82.52 per barrel by this time. At the end of the previous session, the value of these contracts decreased by $1.91 (2.3%) to $82.31 per barrel, the lowest since August 30.
The day before, oil fell in price on the prospects of weakening global demand, which outweighed concerns about limited supply. In particular, data from the U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday showed a significant decline in demand for gasoline. Its stocks jumped by 6.48 million barrels in the United States last week, the ministry said. At the same time, oil reserves decreased by 2.22 million barrels.
The consensus forecast of analysts polled by S&P Global Commodity Insights was for gasoline reserves to remain unchanged and for oil stocks to decline by 1.4 million barrels.
