Oil prices are slightly rising in trading on Monday.
The cost of December futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:15 a.m. on Monday is $92.32 per barrel, which is $0.12 (0.13%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Friday, the price of these contracts fell by $0.9 (1%) to $92.2 per barrel.
Futures for WTI for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $0.14 (0.15%) to $90.93 per barrel by this time. As a result of the previous trading, the value of these contracts decreased by $0.92 (1%) to $90.79 per barrel.
Concerns about a potential supply shortage in the market supported oil prices in September. Many analysts are still confident that prices will continue to move up to $100 per barrel, Market Watch notes.
Brent rose by 9.7% last month and by 27.3% in the third quarter, while WTI rose by 8.6% and 28.5%, respectively.
“The impetus for price growth, driven by fears of a supply shortage in the market, had exhausted itself by the end of last week,” said Vanda Insights founder Vandana Hari. – “Now we are likely to see a consolidation phase until new market drivers emerge.
This week (October 2-5), the 27th ADIPEC 2023 International Oil and Gas Exhibition and Conference will be held in Abu Dhabi (UAE), which may give new signals about what to expect in the oil market in the near future. Among the speakers at the conference are OPEC Secretary General Haisam al-Ghais and UAE Energy Minister Suheil al-Mazroui.
Benchmark oil prices continue to rise Wednesday morning after climbing the previous day, driven by reduced concerns about the global economy and growing worries about fuel shortages on the world market.
The price of November futures for Brent on the London-based ICE Futures exchange at 8:16 a.m. Wednesday is $94.91 per barrel, up $0.95 (1.01%) from the previous session’s close. On Tuesday, these contracts rose by $0.67 (0.7%) to $93.96 per barrel.
Quotes of futures for WTI crude oil for November at the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by the specified time rose by $0.96 (1.06%) and amounted to $ 91.35 per barrel. At the end of the last session they rose by $0.71 (0.8%) – to $90.39 per barrel.
Oil is supported by fears that demand will greatly exceed supply, which intensified after the decisions of Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary production cuts.
“It seems nothing can derail the oil price rally,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. – Energy traders are quick to recognize the bullish trend, and it will take much more than a strong dollar and weakening demand to break it.”
Market participants are also evaluating signals about changes in U.S. energy inventories.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), last week oil reserves in the States increased by 1.59 million barrels. A week earlier, the reserves fell by 5.25 million barrels.
The official data from the Energy Department will be released at 5:30 p.m. Q1 on Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast that the data will indicate a reduction in oil reserves by 320 thousand barrels, gasoline – by 120 thousand barrels, distillates – by 1.3 million barrels.
Oil prices continued to decline on Tuesday amid concerns about the global economy and high interest rates in the United States.
November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange by 14:47 by $0.75 (0.8%) to $92.54 per barrel.
Quotations for November futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time decreased by $0.77 (0.86%) to $88.91 per barrel.
Earlier in September, oil prices reached annual highs on the news that Saudi Arabia and Russia were extending voluntary production cuts.
However, last week, the Federal Reserve made it clear that interest rates could be raised again and could remain at high levels for a long time. In this regard, uncertainty about the outlook for oil demand has recently increased.
Meanwhile, “oil supply is expected to lag behind demand for the foreseeable future, and therefore periods of weakness in quotations, even severe weakness, are unlikely to last long,” wrote Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.
Douglas Lawler, head of Continental Resources, believes that oil prices could reach $120-150 per barrel, provided that production does not start to grow.
On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish data on the weekly dynamics of oil reserves in the country, and on Wednesday, the Ministry of Energy will present official statistics. Traders on average expect a reduction in oil reserves by 1.65 million barrels over the week, according to Trading Economics.
Benchmark oil prices continue to decline on Thursday morning, showing negative dynamics for the third consecutive session, despite data on the reduction of fuel stocks in the United States.
The price of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:09 a.m. is $92.86 per barrel, which is $0.67 (0.72%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Wednesday, these contracts fell by $0.81 (0.9%) to $93.53 per barrel.
Quotations for November futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time decreased by $0.68 (0.76%) to $88.98 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they fell by $0.82 (0.9%) to $89.66 per barrel.
Commercial oil inventories in the United States last week decreased by 2.14 million barrels, according to the weekly report of the country’s Energy Ministry. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a decline of 1.7 million barrels.
Meanwhile, gasoline stocks fell by 831 thousand barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 2.87 million barrels. Experts expected an increase in gasoline stocks by 1.1 million barrels and an increase in distillate stocks by 1.05 million barrels.
Oil reserves at the Cushing terminal fell by 2.1 million barrels. Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was replenished by 600 thousand barrels.
“We do believe that some consolidation is warranted before the next upside move,” Tariq Zaheer, managing partner at Tyche Capital Advisors, told MarketWatch.
With Russia and Saudi Arabia cutting oil production by the end of the year, it is only a matter of time before Brent prices rise to $100 per barrel, he added.
According to Zaheer, “the rise in oil prices may be hindered by high oil prices, as they will put pressure on demand.”
Benchmark oil prices continue to decline on Wednesday morning after falling the day before.
The cost of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:10 a.m. is $93.51 per barrel, which is 83 cents (0.88%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Tuesday, these contracts fell by 9 cents (0.1%) to $94.34 per barrel.
Quotes for October futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by 8:04 a.m. fell by 82 cents (0.9%) to $90.38 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they fell by 28 cents (0.3%) to $91.2 per barrel. October contracts for WTI will expire at the close of the market on Wednesday. Futures for November, which are more actively traded, are losing 74 cents (0.82%) to $89.74 per barrel.
By Tuesday, both brands had been rising in price for three consecutive sessions.
DTN Senior Market Analyst Troy Vincent believes that the main threat to the continuation of the oil rally is a change in fundamentals.
“At current prices, lower demand for imported crude from China and rising exports of its refined products will certainly help to curb this rally in the short term,” Vincent told MarketWatch. – “If that happens – and especially if demand elsewhere begins to weaken – Saudi Arabia could quickly change its mind about how far it is willing to go with voluntary production cuts.
Market participants are also awaiting the outcome of the September meeting of the Federal Reserve Board, which will be held on Wednesday at 21:00 p.m. Wall Street experts are almost certain that the US regulator will leave the interest rate at 5.25-5.5% per annum following this meeting.
Benchmark oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday after hitting new annual highs the day before on fears of a fuel shortage in the global market.
The price of November futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:15 a.m. is $95.03 per barrel, which is 60 cents (0.64%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Monday, these contracts rose by $0.5 (0.5%) to $94.43 per barrel.
Quotes for WTI futures for October in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by $1.01 (1.1%) to $92.49 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they rose by $0.71 (0.8%) to $91.48 per barrel.
The day before, Brent had updated its record from November 11 last year, and WTI – from November 7.
“Oil is maintaining its upward momentum thanks to some signs of a Chinese economic recovery,” said Tim Waterer, senior market analyst at KCM Trade. In particular, he pointed to the improvement in industrial production and consumer spending last month, as well as the growth of retail sales by 4.6% in August in annual terms.
“WTI is trying to gain a foothold above $90 per barrel,” he added.
“The current bullish trend is likely to be driven by non-OPEC production, especially shale oil and gas production in the US, in response to rising prices,” said Robbie Fraser of Schneider Electric. – “We are seeing the first signs of this dynamic, but it needs to be stronger and more consistent to have an impact on the market.
