Benchmark oil prices are falling Monday morning after a three-month record rise at the end of last week.
The price of September futures for Brent on the London-based ICE Futures exchange at 8:18 a.m. Q4 is at $78.02 a barrel, down 45 cents (0.57%) from the previous session’s close. On Friday, these contracts rose by $1.95 (2.6%) – to $78.47 per barrel, having updated the maximum since May 1.
Quotes of futures for WTI crude oil for August at the electronic trading of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by the specified time decreased by 47 cents (0.64%) and amounted to $73.39 per barrel. At the end of the previous session they rose by $2.06 (2.9%) – to $73.86 per barrel.
Last week Brent rose in price by 4.1%, WTI – by 4.6%.
Positive factors for the oil market were the data on the third consecutive weekly reduction of inventories in the United States and the news about the extension of voluntary production cuts by Saudi Arabia.
As reported, commercial oil reserves in the U.S. last week decreased by 1.5 million barrels. Experts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights, on average, predicted a decline of 3.6 million barrels.
Saudi Arabia announced the extension of a voluntary oil production cut of 1 million bpd for August. Thus, the country’s production in August will remain at around 9 mln bpd.
Oil prices of benchmark grades are weakly falling Thursday morning after an increase in the previous session.
The price of September futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $76.41 a barrel by 8:10 a.m., down $0.24 (0.31%) from the close of the previous session. Those contracts rose $0.4 (0.5%) to $76.65 a barrel on Wednesday.
The price of WTI crude futures for August at electronic trades of NYMEX fell by 6 cents (0.08%) to $71.73 per barrel by that time. The day before these contracts rose $2 (2.9%) to $71.79 a barrel.
A positive factor in previous session was the statements of the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman that OPEC+ will do everything necessary to support the oil market.
On Monday, Saudi Arabia announced an extension of its voluntary oil production cut of 1 million bpd for August. Thus, the country’s oil production will remain at around 9 mln bpd in August.
Meanwhile, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. oil inventories fell by 4.38 million barrels last week.
Official data from the nation’s Energy Department will be released Thursday at 6 p.m. Q, a day later than usual since Tuesday was a non-working day in the States. Experts polled by Trading Economics, on average, forecast a decrease in oil reserves by about 1 million barrels.
Oil is moderately expensive on Tuesday morning.
The price of September Brent futures on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stands at $75.02 a barrel by 8:11 a.m., $0.37 (0.5%) above the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts fell $0.76 (1%) to $74.65 a barrel on Monday.
WTI futures for August crude oil grew by $0.36 (0.52%) to $70.15 per barrel at electronic trades on NYMEX. The day before these contracts went down by $0.85 (1.2%) to $69.79 per barrel.
On Monday, Saudi Arabia announced that it was extending its voluntary cut of oil production by 1 mln bpd for August. Thus, Saudi Arabia’s oil production will remain at around 9 million bpd in August.
Meanwhile, Russia, in an effort to balance the market, will voluntarily reduce supplies to oil markets by 500,000 bpd in August by reducing exports by a specified amount, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters.
Oil initially reacted to the news with moderate positivity, but it was not enough for a significant rally, Sevens Report Research analysts said.
A negative factor for the market was the news that the index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector (ISM Manufacturing) fell to 46 points in June from 46.9 points a month earlier. Experts, the consensus forecast of which was quoted by Trading Economic, had expected the growth up to 47 points.
Meanwhile, the euro area manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 43.4 points this month, down from 44.8 points in May, according to final data from Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) and S&P Global. Previously, it had reported a decline to 43.6 points. The final result indicates the sharpest deterioration in the sector since May 2020, Trading Economics wrote.
Oil quotations are weakly rising on Friday morning after a moderate rise in prices at the end of the previous session.
The value of August futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $74.49 a barrel by 8:02 a.m., $0.15 (0.2%) above the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts rose $0.31 (0.4%) to $74.34 a barrel on Thursday.
The price of WTI crude futures for August at electronic trades of New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) increased by that time by $0.01, to $69.87 per barrel. The day before these contracts rose $0.3 (0.4%) to $69.86 a barrel.
Oil gets support from strong statistical data from the U.S. and signals about reduction of fuel reserves in the country.
On the eve of the U.S. Department of Commerce raised its estimate of the country’s GDP growth in January-March to 2% in annual terms from the previously announced 1.3%.
A day earlier it became known that oil reserves in the States last week fell by 9.6 million barrels instead of the expected decline by 4.8 million barrels, according to experts polled by S & P Global Commodity Insights.
Expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the leading central banks of the world are restraining factor for oil quotations.
Fed chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this week that most U.S. central bankers see the possibility of at least two more hikes in the benchmark interest rate. For her part, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said there was a high probability of a rate hike in the eurozone in July.
Oil prices are down on Thursday after a strong rise the day before on data on a sharp decline in U.S. inventories.
The value of August Brent futures on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $73.57 a barrel by 8:10 a.m. Thursday, down $0.46 (0.62%) from the previous session’s close. Those contracts rose $1.77 (2.5%) to $74.03 a barrel on Wednesday.
The price of WTI crude futures for August at NYMEX fell by $0.39 (0.56%) to $69.17 per barrel by that time. The day before the stocks went up $1.86 (2.8%) to $69.56 per barrel.
Last week crude inventories in the U.S. fell by 9.6 million barrels to 453.69 million barrels, according to the Energy Department. Experts polled by S&P Global Commodity Insights had on average forecast a less significant decline of 4.8 million barrels.
“The decline in U.S. inventories is largely due to an increase in oil exports,” said DTN chief analyst Troy Vincent, quoted by Market Watch. – This is occurring despite a decline in U.S. refinery activity.”
Stocks at the terminal in Cushing, which stores crude oil traded on the NYMEX, increased over the past week by 1.21 million barrels, according to the Energy Department.
The oil market ended the second quarter of 2023 in the negative due to the slower-than-expected recovery of the Chinese economy, as well as fears of recession in the U.S. and Europe amid a tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
Fed Chief Jerome Powell said at the ECB forum in Sintra on Wednesday that most U.S. central bank leaders see the possibility of at least two more hikes in the prime rate.
Oil prices are rising Wednesday on data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on sharper than expected U.S. inventory declines.
According to API, they fell by 2.41 million barrels in the week ended June 23. Experts polled by Trading Economics forecasted an average decline of 1.47m barrels.
The official data on oil reserves for the previous week will be released by the U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday at 5:30 p.m.
Brent August futures on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $72.59 a barrel by 8:10 a.m. Wednesday, up $0.33 (0.46%) from the previous session’s close. Those contracts fell $1.92 (2.6%) to $72.26 a barrel on Tuesday.
The price of WTI futures for August at electronic trades of NYMEX grew by $0.22 (0.32%) to $67.92 per barrel by that time. The day before these contracts fell by $1.67, or 2.4%, to $67.7 per barrel.
The oil market ends the second quarter of 2023 in the negative, due to the slower-than-expected recovery of the Chinese economy after the lifting of quarantine restrictions. Fears of recession in the U.S. and Europe amid tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank also put pressure on the market.
Statistical data released on Tuesday, however, show that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite the Federal Reserve’s restrictive policy. The nation’s consumer confidence index rose in June to its highest since January 2022, and new-home sales in May were the highest since last February.
“The strong economic statistics we saw yesterday increase the likelihood of a further Fed rate hike,” notes Warren Patterson, who is in charge of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV. – This is the moment when good news is bad news for the market.
