Oil prices continue to decline Wednesday morning after ending the previous session in the negative.
The price of July futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $74.88 a barrel by 8:08 a.m., down $0.03 (0.04%) from the close of the previous session. Those contracts fell $0.32 (0.4%) to $74.91 a barrel on Monday.
The price of WTI futures for June crude oil at NYMEX fell by $0.07, to $70.79 per barrel. The day before contract prices dropped $0.25 (0.4%) to $70.86 per barrel.
The market participants are waiting for data on fuel reserves in the USA for the week that ended on May 12. They forecast a decrease of oil reserves by 0.9-1.3 mln barrels. The Energy Department will publish the official statistics at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), reserves rose by about 3.7 million barrels.
Earlier, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the country intends to start adding to its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) next month. According to Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn, such a move would likely consolidate support for quotations at $70 a barrel, the target price for the US.
In addition, restocking the U.S. will try to “calm down” Saudi Arabia, which, apparently, was dissatisfied with the lack of buying activity from Washington at a time when “the massive outflow of funds from bank deposits gave it a chance,” quoted Flynn to MarketWatch.
Oil prices are rising on Tuesday morning after a rebound in the previous session, while before that quotations had been falling for three days in a row.
The price of July futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $75.57 per barrel by 8:07 a.m., $0.34 (0.45%) above the close of the previous session. Those contracts rose $1.06 (1.4%) to $75.23 a barrel on Monday.
The price of WTI futures for June oil grew by $0.27 (0.38%) to $71.38 per barrel at electronic auctions of New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by that time. The day before the contracts value grew by $1.07 (1.5%) to $71.11 per barrel.
The strong macroeconomic data from China were a positive factor for the market, though it turned out to be worse than the market forecasts.
As it was reported, the industrial production in China in April increased by 5.6% compared to the same month last year after growth by 3.9% in March. Meanwhile, retail sales soared 18.4% last month after rising 10.6% a month earlier.
Analysts on average had forecast a 10.9% increase in industrial production and a 21% increase in retail sales, according to Trading Economics.
Also, the market is supported by hopes that the White House and Congress will be able to agree on raising the U.S. debt ceiling.
Negotiations on the debt ceiling between President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are expected to resume on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to buy up to 3 million barrels of oil to replenish the strategic reserve. Last spring, Biden announced the sale of 180 million barrels from the reserve to combat fuel shortages in the market.
As of May 5, the volume of oil reserves in the strategic reserve was 362 million barrels, while the maximum possible level was 713 million barrels. The current figure is the lowest since the 1980s, writes MarketWatch.
Oil quotes are declining in the afternoon on Thursday. The market is assessing the monetary policy of the Bank of England, data on inflation and oil imports in China and waiting for the monthly OPEC report.
The price of July Brent futures on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stands at $76.25 a barrel by 2:25 p.m., down $0.16 (0.21%) from the previous session’s closing price.
The price of futures on WTI crude oil for June on electronic trade of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by that time by $0.19 (0.26%), to $72.37 per barrel.
The rate of consumer price growth in China slowed to a 0.1% annualized rate in April from 0.7% in March, data from the State Statistics Office showed. April inflation is the lowest since February 2021. Analysts on average had forecast it would weaken to 0.4%, Trading Economics noted.
In addition, China reduced oil imports in April by 16% year-on-year to 10.6 million barrels per day, adding to fears of a slowdown in its economy.
Traders may also react to the outcome of the Bank of England meeting, which raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% per annum.
The oil market has shown itself to be a “lightning rod for volatility” of late, notes KCM Trade Senior Market Analyst Tim Waterer, whose words are quoted by MarketWatch. In his opinion, extreme price fluctuations cannot be ruled out in this regard, especially given the high sensitivity of oil prices to expectations for global economic growth.
Oil prices are rising on Monday thanks to some easing of concerns over a possible recession.
A positive factor for the market was Friday’s data on the U.S. labor market, which showed that it remains strong despite a significant tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
“Oil prices have been falling lately because of fears of a global recession, but strong labor market data and positive comments from central bank governors offer hope that a recession can be avoided this year,” said Jamil Ahmad, chief analyst at CompareBroker.io, cited by Market Watch.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the U.S. economy is likely to continue growing at a moderate pace this year and avoid a recession.
In addition, traders note that China is increasing its oil purchases and demand is likely to remain strong in the next few months due to increased tourist activity in the country.
At the same time, global oil inventories are shrinking and the problem will be exacerbated by OPEC+ production cuts.
July Brent crude futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stood at $75.7 a barrel by 8:10 a.m. Monday, up $0.4 (0.53%) from the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts rose $2.8 (3.9%) to $75.3 a barrel on Friday.
The price of WTI crude futures for June grew by $0.43 (0.6%) to $71.77 per barrel at electronic auctions of New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by that time. The contract value grew by $2.78 (4.1%) to $71.34 per barrel at the end of previous session.
Brent was down 6.3% and WTI was down 7.1% at the end of last week.
“The market decline last week was much more significant than one would have expected, judging by the supply-demand balance in the market,” said Citigroup Inc. analyst Ed Morse. Ed Morse. – We can expect oil inventories to decline, given the approach of the summer season, during which demand will rise.”
Oil prices rose on Friday despite concerns about the global economy and demand for energy resources after a rate hike in the U.S. and euro zone.
July Brent futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stood at $73.21 a barrel by 8:04 a.m. Friday, up $0.71 (0.98%) from the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts rose $0.17 (0.2%) to $72.5 a barrel on Thursday.
The price of WTI futures for June oil grew by $0.63 (0.92%) up to $69.19 per barrel at electronic trades of NYMEX by that time. At the end of previous session the contracts went down by $0.04 (0.1%) to $68.56 per barrel, which was the lowest since March 20.
The day before, the European Central Bank expectedly raised all three key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). Thus, the benchmark interest rate on loans now stands at 3.75%, the deposit rate at 3.25% and the rate on margin loans at 4%.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve also raised its key interest rate by 25 bps, its range now being the highest since 2007 at 5-5.25% per year. Meanwhile, the words about the necessity to further tighten the monetary policy disappeared from the press release on the results of the meeting.
In addition, it became known that Saudi Arabia in June will raise the price of oil with delivery to European countries, and for Asian buyers the fuel will become cheaper. Prices for oil with delivery in the U.S. next month will not change, with the exception of grade Arab Light, which will become cheaper by $0.5 per barrel, said state company Saudi Aramco.
Oil prices are stable in trading on Tuesday after declining the day before on increased fears of declining demand.
The price of July futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $79.27 a barrel by 8:05 a.m. Tuesday, down $0.04 (0.05%) from the close of the previous session. Those contracts fell $1.02 (1.3%) to $79.31 a barrel on Monday.
The price of WTI futures for June oil grew by $0.02 (0.03%) to $75.64 per barrel at electronic trades of New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by that time. The contracts value has decreased by $1.12 (1.5%) to $75.66 per barrel at the end of previous session.
Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate again this week, worried that further tightening of monetary policy in the U.S. will trigger a global recession, Market Watch noted.
China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry fell to a four-month low of 49.2 points in April from 51.9 points in March, data from China’s State Bureau of Statistics (SBS) showed. The value of the index below 50 points indicates a decline in activity in the sector. PMI in April fell below this mark for the first time since December.
In April Brent has fallen in price by 0.3% and WTI has risen by 1.5%.
