Oil prices continue to decline on Tuesday after a 3% decline the day before following OPEC’s worsening forecast of oil demand.
The oil market is also pressured by weak statistical data from China, which increased traders’ pessimism about demand prospects.
China’s industrial output growth slowed in October while retail sales fell for the first time in five months, China’s State Statistics Office (SSC) reported on Tuesday.
January Brent crude futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stood at $92.88 a barrel by 8:15 a.m. KSC on Tuesday, down $0.26 (0.28%) from the previous session’s close. Those contracts fell $2.85 (3%) to $93.14 a barrel at the close of trading on Monday.
The price of WTI futures for December at electronic trades of NYMEX fell by that time by $0.52 (0.61%) to $85.35 per barrel. By the close of previous trading, those contracts had fallen $3.09 (3.5%) to $85.87 a barrel.
“Weak statistical data from China only confirms the view that oil demand in the country will remain weak as long as tight quarantine restrictions persist,” notes Vanda Insights founder Vandana Hari in Singapore, cited by Bloomberg.
On the eve of OPEC lowered its estimate of the demand for oil in 2022 by 100 thousand barrels per day – up to 99.57 million bpd, in 2023 – also by 100 thousand bpd, to 101.82 thousand bpd.
Thus, OPEC predicts that global oil consumption in 2022 will increase by 2.55 million bpd, and in 2023 – another 2.24 million bpd, according to a monthly report of the organization.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its forecasts on Tuesday.
Oil prices rose for the third session in a row thanks to expectations of growth in demand in China as a result of changes in the authorities’ policy to combat COVID-19, as well as new measures to support the economy.
Last week Beijing announced a cut in mass testing of people for the coronavirus as well as the dissolution of “quarantine camps”. On Saturday, authorities said they were planning further gradual changes that would make the covid restrictions more focused, but not softer.
“China’s adjustment of its ‘zero tolerance’ coronavirus policy sends a strong signal to the oil market,” notes SPI Asset Management analyst Stephen Innes.
The value of January futures for Brent crude oil on London’s ICE Futures exchange is $96.19 a barrel by 7:15 PM on Monday, up $0.2 (0.21%) from the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts rose $2.32 (2.5%) to $95.99 a barrel at the close of trading on Friday.
The price of WTI futures for December at electronic trades of NYMEX grew by that time by $0.14 (0.16%) to $89.1 per barrel. By closing of previous trades the cost of those contracts grew by $2.49 (2.9%) to $88.96 per barrel.
Brent had fallen by 2.6% and WTI by 3.9% at the end of previous week.
The increase in oil consumption in China may coincide with a reduction in supply in the market in connection with the forthcoming entry into force of the European embargo on imports of Russian oil and reduce OPEC production +, notes Bloomberg.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said over the weekend that a European embargo on oil purchases from Russia that enters into force Dec. 5 will “very likely” force Moscow to sell some oil at a price no higher than the ceiling set by the United States and its allies, if Russia wants to avoid a significant reduction in oil exports.
Oil prices began to decline on Thursday, falling for the fourth consecutive session on signals of expanding quarantine restrictions in China.
January futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange by 14:01 Moscow time fell by $0.80 (0.86%) to $91.85 per barrel. Brent quotes fell below $92 per barrel for the first time since the end of October.
Quotes for December futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by that time fell by $0.99 (1.15%) to $84.84 per barrel.
The day before, the price of Brent fell by 2.8%, WTI fell by 3.5%.
China introduces quarantine measures in a number of major cities, including Beijing, amid a jump in the incidence of COVID-19 in the country to the highest level in six months, Bloomberg reports. In particular, the restrictions affected the city of Chongqing with a population of more than 32 million people, which faced the sharpest increase in infections in more than a year.
China is the world’s largest importer of fuel, and market participants fear that lockdowns will put additional pressure on the economy and energy demand in the country, Barron’s notes.
In addition, on Wednesday it became known that US commercial oil inventories increased by 3.92 million barrels last week to 440.76 million barrels. This is a record figure since July 2021. Experts polled by Bloomberg expected an average increase in stocks of only 250 thousand barrels.
Traders are also waiting for the report on October inflation in the US, which will be released on Thursday and may affect the policy of the Federal Reserve. Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics expect a slowdown in inflation last month to 8% from September’s 8.2%.
Oil prices increased on Tuesday on the news about the growth of number of coronavirus in China.
January futures on Brent crude oil on London’s ICE Futures Exchange fell by $0.96 (0.98%) to $96.96 per barrel by 12:51 pm (EET).
By the same time quotations of futures on WTI for December dropped by $1.19 (1.30%) to $90.60 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
The day before Brent price went down by 0.7% and WTI, by 0.9%.
On Monday over 7 thousand new cases of COVID-19 were registered in China, which is the maximum in 6 months. In this regard, Beijing confirmed that it intends to continue mass testing and introduction of lockdowns to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
Oil demand in China, the world’s largest fuel importer, is one of the key factors influencing oil market dynamics.
“The market believes that if China opens its economy, it will sharply reduce the oil surplus in the market and put upward pressure on futures,” said Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn.
In addition, traders expect a partial embargo on Russian oil supplies to Europe, imposed in response to Russia’s continued full-scale war against Ukraine, to take effect soon. “Many expect the battle for free barrels to begin in December, especially in the eurozone,” said Bob Yager of Mizuho.
Oil prices are declining on Monday morning after a strong growth following last week’s results, driven by hopes for a softening of the approach of the Chinese authorities to combat the coronavirus.
The price of January futures for Brent at London’s ICE Futures Exchange stood at $97.59 per barrel by 7:06 a.m., down $0.98 (0.99%) from the close of the previous session. At the close of trading last Friday those contracts grew by $3.9 (4.1%) to $98.57 per barrel.
The price of WTI futures for December at the electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $91.44 per barrel by that time, down $1.17 (1.26%) from the previous session. The contract rose by $4.44 (5%) to $92.61 per barrel at the end of last session.
Brent gained 5.1% last week to finish at its highest level since late August, while WTI gained 5.4%.
The Wall Street Journal wrote last Friday, citing several sources, that Zeng Guang, a former top epidemiologist at China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), said during a conference that a significant change in the country’s authorities’ approach to the coronavirus pandemic was expected in 2023.
Over the weekend, however, Beijing reiterated its intention to adhere “rigorously” to a “zero tolerance” policy for COVID-19.
“Traders believe China will be a driver of fuel demand growth at some point next year on the back of the country’s accelerating economic growth,” said SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes.
Oil prices are rising during trading on Tuesday after falling in the previous session.
The cost of January futures for Brent oil on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:06 am TSK on Tuesday is $93.57 per barrel, which is $0.76 (0.82%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Monday, these contracts fell by $0.96 (1%) to $92.81 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for December in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by this time by $0.59 (0.68%), to $87.12 per barrel. By the close of previous trading, the value of these contracts fell by $1.37 (1.6%) to $86.53 per barrel.
Traders are also waiting for meetings of large central banks, writes Bloomberg.
The US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will sum up the results of a two-day meeting on Wednesday against the backdrop of persistently high inflation in the States. On Thursday, the decision on the key rate will be made by the Bank of England.
Support for oil comes from the weakening dollar, which makes commodity prices more attractive to investors.
Meanwhile, the OPEC annual review says that the annual growth in oil demand in the world until 2025 will average 2.1 million b / d, in the next 10 years it will slow down and stabilize by 2035.
According to the report, in 2022, global oil consumption will rise to 100.3 million b/d after 96.9 million b/d in 2021. Further, demand will increase significantly from year to year until 2025: by an average of 2.1 million bpd.
The total oil production quota of the OPEC+ countries has been reduced by 2 million barrels per day since November compared to August levels (coincides with October quotas – IF).
The decision was made by the alliance at a meeting held on October 5, which was held in person for the first time in more than two years.
