Oil prices tumble on Monday on signs of a continued slowdown in economic activity in China due to tight quarantine measures to curb the spread of COVID-19.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing industry fell to its lowest level since July of 49.2 in October from 50.1 a month earlier, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (GSO).
An index value below 50 points indicates a decline in activity in the sector.
PMI services in China in October fell to 48.7 points, dropping below 50 points for the first time since May.
The cost of December futures for Brent oil on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:15 am TST on Monday is $95.03 per barrel, which is $0.74 (0.77%) lower than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Friday, these contracts fell by $1.19 (1.2%) to $95.77 per barrel.
December futures expire at the close of the market on Monday. More actively traded January contracts fell by $0.69 (0.74%) to $93.08 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for December in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) has decreased by $0.49 (0.56%) by this time, to $87.41 per barrel. By the close of previous trading, the value of these contracts fell by $1.18 (1.3%) to $87.9 per barrel.
As a result of last week, Brent rose by 2.4% per barrel, WTI – by 3.4%. The market closes the month with a rise of almost 10% due to the decision taken by OPEC + to cut production from November by 2 million barrels per day.
“Oil prices are likely to rise as OPEC+ cuts production and the EU embargo on Russian oil purchases (introduced in response to the continuation of the full-scale war unleashed by the Russian Federation against Ukraine – IF) will come into force on December 5,” notes the managing director Vanir Global Markets in Singapore James Whistler quoted by Bloomberg.
Oil prices are falling during trading on Friday after a steady rise the day before.
December futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell by $0.77 (0.79%) by 8:00 a.m. to $96.19 per barrel. As a result of trading on Thursday, they rose by $1.27 (1.33%) to $96.96 per barrel.
Quotes of WTI futures for December in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by the specified time decreased by $0.94 (1.06%) to $88.14 per barrel. According to the results of previous trading, they increased by $1.17 (1.33%) to $89.08 per barrel.
Despite Friday’s decline, oil prices may end the week with growth on the back of a sharp fall in the dollar, as well as data on US exports.
Meanwhile, investors remain cautious amid an uncertain demand outlook due to rising inflation, higher interest rates and growing recession risks, writes Trading Economics.
Earlier this week, it became known that US commercial oil inventories increased by 2.59 million barrels last week, while experts polled by Bloomberg expected a more moderate increase – by 1.5 million barrels.
The US Department of Energy report also reported that gasoline inventories fell by 1.48 million barrels, while distillate reserves increased by 170 thousand barrels. Analysts predicted a decline in gasoline by 1.5 million barrels, distillates – by 1 million barrels.
Oil prices rise moderately on Thursday morning after rising to two-week highs the day before, provoked by the depreciation of the dollar and data on the reduction of gasoline inventories in the United States.
The price of December futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures is $95.93 per barrel by 8:02 a.m., which is $0.24 (0.25%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Wednesday, these contracts rose by $2.17 (2.3%) to $95.69 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for December in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $88.1 per barrel by this time, which is $0.19 (0.22%) higher than the final value of the previous session. A day earlier, the contract rose in price by $2.59 (3%) to $87.91 per barrel.
As it became known on Wednesday from the report of the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the country increased by 2.59 million barrels last week, while experts polled by Bloomberg expected a more moderate increase – by 1.5 million barrels.
Inventories of gasoline decreased by 1.48 million barrels, while distillate reserves increased by 170 thousand barrels. Analysts predicted a decrease in gasoline stocks by 1.5 million barrels, distillates – by 1 million barrels.
“Drunken gasoline inventories suggest that the economy and driving may not be as bad as expected,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research.
Meanwhile, the ICE-calculated index, which shows the dynamics of the dollar against six major world currencies, fell 1.2% the day before. Wednesday’s rise in oil prices “was actually the result of the dollar’s decline,” Phil Flynn, senior analyst at The Price Futures Group, told MarketWatch.
Oil prices are rising on Friday morning due to rumors about a possible easing of anti-COVID restrictions in China.
The price of December futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:13 am CST is $92.90 per barrel, which is $0.42 (0.45%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Thursday, these contracts fell by 3 cents to $92.38 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for December in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $84.98 per barrel by this time, which is $0.47 (0.56%) higher than the final value of the previous session. By the close of the last session, the contract fell 1 cent to $84.51 per barrel.
A positive factor for the oil market was the news about a possible easing of quarantine regulations for tourists in China. The quarantine period could be reduced to 7 days from the current 10, Bloomberg wrote.
Rumors of an easing of restrictive measures in China were perceived by investors as a signal of a potential curtailment of the policy of “zero tolerance” for the coronavirus, which in turn could spur economic growth and increase demand for fuel in the country, writes The Wall Street Journal.
“China was expected to increase oil imports, but there is no increase in spot market activity from the world’s second largest economy,” said StoneX Group analyst Harry Altham. “Such measures could revive the economy, suffering from anti-COVID restrictions, and become a lifeline for struggling air carriers.
Earlier, US President Joe Biden decided to release 15 million barrels from the strategic reserve (SPR) in December.
“Given that this is part of a previously announced large-scale release, the impact on the market is minimal. Such a measure is unlikely to offset the effect of OPEC+ supply cuts,” ING analyst Warren Patterson wrote.
Oil prices are rising after falling to lows in more than two weeks on reports that the US plans to sell additional barrels of oil from the strategic reserve.
The price of December futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:10 am Wednesday is $90.52 per barrel, which is $0.49 (0.54%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Tuesday, these contracts fell by $1.59 (1.7%) to $90.03 per barrel.
The price of futures for WTI oil for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by this time by $0.88 (1.06%), to $83.7 per barrel. By the close of previous trading, the value of these contracts fell by $2.64 (3.1%) to $82.82 per barrel.
US President Joe Biden will announce on Wednesday the sale of an additional 15 million barrels of oil from the country’s strategic oil reserve in response to OPEC+’s move to cut oil production by 2 million b/d since November, the Associated Press wrote, citing senior officials in the US presidential administration. .
In addition, the President is expected to announce that he may make a similar decision several times this winter. These measures are aimed at curbing the rise in oil prices in the world. The plan to sell the energy resource from the reserve was announced in March, and it was designed for six months. In total, it was planned to release 180 million barrels.
At the moment, the US strategic oil reserve is at its lowest level since 1984, which is about 400 million barrels of oil, writes Associated Press.
At the same time, upside potential in the oil market remains due to traders’ concerns about supply. “We continue to see a number of opportunities for a short-term recovery (of oil prices – IF), as the EU embargo on energy supplies from the Russian Federation comes into force in December, and the G7 countries continue to work on the price ceiling for Russian oil,” analysts at Fitch Solutions said.
Oil prices began to rise moderately during trading on Thursday, recovering from the decline over the previous three sessions.
December futures for Brent on London’s ICE Futures exchange increased by $0.38 (0.41%) to $92.83 per barrel by 15:06 CST.
Quotes of futures for WTI for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by the specified time increased by $0.28 (0.32%) – up to $87.55 per barrel.
On Wednesday, Brent shed 2%, WTI – 2.3%, both brands finished in the red for the third session in a row.
Traders’ attention on Thursday is focused on the US Department of Energy’s report on energy stocks in the country over the past week, which will be published at 18:00 Moscow time on Thursday.
Experts polled by S&P Global Commodity Insights predict a weekly increase in US oil inventories by 2.2 million barrels, as well as a decrease in gasoline and distillate reserves by 2.1 million and 2.3 million barrels, respectively.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), released yesterday, showed an increase in US oil inventories for the week ended October 7 by 7.1 million barrels after a decrease of 1.77 million barrels a week earlier.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday lowered its 2022 oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 b/d to 99.6 million b/d. Thus, in 2022, the IEA expects global oil demand to grow by 1.9 million b/d against 2 million b/d a month earlier. The estimate of global oil demand in 2023 has been reduced from 101.8 million b/d to 101.3 million b/d.
The agency notes that the estimate of global demand has been adjusted due to the deterioration of the global economy, as well as rising fuel prices due to the adopted OPEC + plan to reduce production.
“Sustainable growth prospects are rapidly fading away amid persistent inflationary pressures, quantitative tightening, regular increases in borrowing costs, a strong dollar and coronavirus-related restrictions in China, the world’s second-largest economy,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.
