Benchmark oil prices are moderately rising on Tuesday morning after a marked decline a day earlier.
The price of March futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange by 7:14 a.m. was $82.64 per barrel, which is $0.24 (0.29%) higher than at the close of the previous session. On Monday, these contracts fell by $1.15 (1.4%) to $82.4 per barrel.
Quotations for March futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by $0.28 (0.36%) to $77.06 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they fell by $1.23 (1.6%) to $76.78 per barrel.
At the beginning of the last session, oil was actively rising in price on the news of the deaths of three American soldiers as a result of a drone attack on a US base in Jordan. U.S. President Joe Biden claimed that paramilitary groups linked to Iran were involved in the attack. Tehran denied such accusations.
Some market participants fear a direct military clash between the United States and Iran, but Washington may try to “contain the escalation and give a limited, local response amid the electoral cycle,” said XS.com analyst Samer Hasn.
At the same time, oil quotations are under pressure from fears of a slowdown in the economy of China, the world’s largest oil importer, and global demand in general, MarketWatch writes.
Benchmark oil prices are rising on Monday morning on the news of the deaths of US military personnel in Jordan as a result of drone attacks.
The price of March futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 7:07 a.m. is $83.97 per barrel, which is $0.42 (0.5%) higher than at the close of the previous session. Last Friday, these contracts rose in price by $1.12 (1.4%) to $83.55 per barrel.
Quotations for March futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time increased by $0.36 (0.46%) to $78.37 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they rose by $0.65 (0.8%) to $78.01 per barrel.
Last week, the price of Brent rose by 6.4%, a record pace since mid-October, and WTI by 6.5%, the highest since early September.
Oil prices were supported last week by data showing a drop in US oil reserves and production last week, said Colin Czeszynski, an analyst at SIA Wealth Management. An additional positive factor was the expectation of new incentives in China.
Meanwhile, the US military reported a drone attack on an American base in northeastern Jordan near the border with Syria. Three soldiers were killed and 34 others were injured. US President Joe Biden said on Sunday that Iranian-backed militias were responsible for the attack.
Much will now depend on the US response and the actions of Iran, which could close the Strait of Hormuz, Tariq Zaheer of Tyche Capital Advisors told MarketWatch. “We are on the verge of escalation, which could seriously affect oil flows,” he added.
Data from the oilfield services company Baker Hughes showed that over the past week, the number of operating oil rigs in the United States increased by two to 499 units. Meanwhile, the number of gas rigs decreased by one to 119.
Benchmark oil prices are declining on Monday morning after production resumed at Libya’s largest field.
Quotations of March futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:11 a.m. amounted to $78.23 per barrel, which is $0.33 (0.42%) below the level at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts fell by $0.54 (0.7%) to $78.56 per barrel.
Prices for February futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) decreased by $0.25 (0.34%) to $73.16 per barrel. As a result of the previous trading, the price of these contracts fell by $0.67 (0.9%) to $73.41 per barrel. February contracts will expire at the close of the market on Monday. Futures for March, which are traded more actively, are cheaper by $0.31 (0.42%) to $72.94 per barrel.
Last week, Brent rose by 0.3%, WTI by 1%.
On Sunday, the Libyan National Oil Corporation announced the lifting of the force majeure regime and the full resumption of production at the Ash Sharara field, which has a capacity of 300 thousand barrels per day.
The force majeure regime was in effect since January 7 due to protests that led to the suspension of supplies from the field to the Zawiya export terminal.
Oil prices were stable on Friday, but ended the week in the black amid geopolitical tensions and declining US oil inventories.
The cost of March futures for Brent crude oil on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:20 a.m. is $78.98 per barrel, which is $0.12 (0.15%) lower than at the close of the previous trading. On Thursday, these contracts rose by $1.22 (1.6%) to $79.1 per barrel.
February futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen in price by this time by $0.08 (0.11%) to $74.16 per barrel. As a result of the previous trading, the value of these contracts increased by $1.52 (2.1%) to $74.08 per barrel.
Since the beginning of this week, Brent has risen in price by 0.9%, WTI – by 2%.
Commercial oil inventories in the United States last week decreased by 2.492 million barrels, to the lowest level since October, the country’s Energy Ministry said on Thursday. Stocks at the Cushing terminal, where oil traded on the Nymex is stored, decreased by 2.1 million barrels over the week, the most since September last year.
US oil production increased by 100 thousand barrels to 13.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
Gasoline reserves in the United States increased by 3.08 million barrels last week, and distillate reserves by 2.37 million barrels.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), which published its monthly oil market review the day before, expects oil demand growth in 2023 to decline to 1.2 million bpd from 2.3 million bpd in 2023.
The IEA’s forecast “is consistent with OPEC’s expectations of a steady increase in demand,” said Matthew Weller, an analyst at FOREX.com and City Index, as quoted by Market Watch.
However, “OPEC’s demand forecast for this year is significantly stronger,” the expert says.
Oil prices are falling on Wednesday amid a general decline in risk appetite and a stronger US dollar, despite the ongoing tensions in the Red Sea region.
The cost of March futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:15 a.m. is $77.66 per barrel, which is $0.63 (0.8%) lower than at the close of the previous trading. On Tuesday, these contracts rose by $0.14 (0.2%) to $78.29 per barrel.
Futures for WTI for February in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have fallen by $0.65 (0.9%) to $71.75 per barrel by this time. As a result of previous trading, the value of these contracts fell by $0.28 (0.4%) to $72.4 per barrel.
Traders seem to be “more concerned about a lack of demand than a shortage of supply at the moment,” said Colin Sizinski, portfolio manager at SIA Wealth Management, as quoted by Market Watch.
The sharp decline in the Empire State Manufacturing index in January “signals a slowdown in US growth, and the Chinese economy is a major concern,” the expert said.
China’s GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 accelerated to 5.2% year-on-year from 4.9% in October-December, but was worse than market expectations (+5.3%).
On Wednesday, the dollar index DXY is adding 0.1%, having risen by 0.6% the day before.
Oil prices are rising on Monday amid continued tensions in the Middle East.
The United States on Saturday launched a new strike on Yemen in response to the launch of a ballistic missile by the Yemeni Houthis at shipping lanes in the Red Sea. According to Western media, the strike hit a single target – a radar used by the Houthis.
On Friday, the United States and the United Kingdom launched a series of airstrikes on military facilities belonging to the Houthis in Yemen.
The cost of March futures for Brent crude oil on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 7:20 a.m. is $78.49 per barrel, which is $0.2 (0.26%) higher than at the close of the previous trading. On Friday, these contracts rose by $0.88 (1.1%) to $78.29 per barrel.
Futures for WTI for February in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have risen in price by this time by $0.12 (0.17%) to $72.8 per barrel. As a result of the previous trading, the value of these contracts increased by $0.66 (0.9%) to $72.68 per barrel.
On Friday, the rise in the price of Brent at one point exceeded 4%, but by the end of the session it was only 1.1%. Over the past week, Brent fell by 0.6%, while WTI fell by 1.5%.
Market fluctuations show that traders currently do not see any serious risks of a reduction in oil production in the Middle East and oil supplies from the region due to the current conflict, Bloomberg writes.
Currently, prices “do not include a geopolitical risk premium, so Brent could rise above $80 per barrel if the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate,” said Rob Tammel, portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors, as quoted by Market Watch.
“Currently, events in the region do not affect the supply of oil on the world market,” said Warren Patterson, who is responsible for commodity strategy at ING Groep NV. – “In the absence of supply disruptions, the situation on the oil market remains comfortable, despite the Middle East tensions.
