Sales of cheese on the domestic market are becoming more difficult, but cheese makers continue to actively produce it, as they consider cheese making more attractive than the production of exchange dairy products, Infagro news agency reported.
“Sales managers have to constantly work in promotions to get rid of stocks in warehouses. Promotional discounts can be quite significant. Such cheese is already becoming competitive with imported counterparts, which are also massively sold in promotions,” analysts advise and point out that European suppliers are becoming less interested in supplying cheese to Ukraine, and they will not rush to increase volumes in the future.
According to experts, due to difficulties with sales in the domestic market and the devaluation of the hryvnia, cheese exports are becoming even more important for producers. It is especially interesting for exporters to Kazakhstan.
“Production of semi-hard and white cheese may even increase in May. At the same time, many products have been stored in warehouses, and in June the production of such cheese should decrease significantly,” Infagro predicts.
Ukrainian cheese makers are facing a decline in sales due to both the high price of Ukrainian cheese and rising imports, according to Infagro, an industry news and analysis agency.
“In March, cheese imports increased by more than 40%, and in April this figure may increase by another 15-20%. That is, the share of European cheeses again accounts for about a third of total cheese sales in Ukraine,” the analysts said.
They emphasized that the share of imports in Ukraine’s domestic market is still lower than before the war, but this should force producers to take measures to stay in their own market.
“Due to the devaluation of the hryvnia, cheese exports are becoming even more profitable. At the same time, exports of cheese products, for example, to Kazakhstan, are falling rapidly. Ukrainian cheese products have already been practically pushed out of the Kazakh market by Russian producers. If exports of cheese products to Kazakhstan stop, production will have to be significantly reduced,” Infagro predicts.
Ukraine exported 2.082 thousand tons of cheese in January-March 2023, which is 2.04 times more than during the same period of 2022. According to customs statistics, in monetary terms, exports were $10.212 million, which is 2.3 times more than a year earlier.
At the same time, the volume of cheese imports was 24.9% less – 7.084 thousand tons in January-March this year. In monetary terms, imports decreased by 8.5% to $43.520 million compared to the same period in 2022.
In this case, the main export of cheese was carried out in Kazakhstan (54.17% of supplies in monetary terms), Moldova (23.86%) and Jordan (5.39%), imports – from Poland (42.39%), Germany (21.23%) and the Netherlands (8.96%).
Ukraine imported 33.818 thousand tons of cheese in 2022 (a decrease of 38.7% compared to 2021), while exporting 8.989 thousand tons (an increase of 29.8%). Exports of butter rose by 29.9% to 14.104 thousand tons last year, while imports fell by 8.21 times to 1.128 thousand tons. Exports of milk and cream (condensed) amounted to 26.696 thousand tons (+19%), while imports – 1.214 thousand tons (a 6.4-fold decrease).
Cheese makers in central and western Ukraine meet the current needs of Ukrainians in cheese, since demand for it is limited due to the departure of consumers from the occupied and frontline territories and abroad, according to the website of the analytical agency Infagro.
“Cheese logistics are getting better, chains have partially resumed direct deliveries to stores, despite the non-working shopping and entertainment centers in many regions. The shelves of working stores have almost been freed from imported assortment. Relatively good sales are in western Ukraine, where migrants have moved,” the message says.
According to the agency, in March prices for Ukrainian cheese did not change compared to February this year.
It is specified that the export of Ukrainian cheese this month will be quite insignificant, only Moldova is available for domestic supplies.
At the same time, cheese imports to Ukraine in February were still significant, 3,600 tonnes were purchased, of which 1,500 tonnes of hard/semi-hard and 600 tonnes of processed cheese.
“Now most of the cheese brought in February has either been sold out or stuck somewhere in distribution warehouses. Most likely, cheese will be brought from Europe as humanitarian aid,” the agency summed up in the message.
Exports of cheese from Ukraine in January 2021 in kind increased 24.2% compared to January 2020, to 410 tonnes.
According to the State Customs Service, the export of cheese in monetary terms amounted to $1.43 million last month, which is 19.1% more than in January 2020.
At the same time, the volume of cheese imports to Ukraine in January did not change, remaining at the level of 2,800 tonnes, and in monetary terms increased by 8.3%, to $13.38 million.
Exports of Ukrainian butter in January 2021 decreased 7.9% compared to January 2020, to 684 tonnes, and in monetary terms it fell by 15%, to $2.96 million. Imports of these products decreased 42%, to 585 tonnes ($2.74 million).
According to the ministry, the export of milk and cream (condensed) in January 2021 increased 18.4% compared to January 2020, to 1,930 tonnes, and in monetary terms it grew by 12% to $4.14 million, while imports of this group of goods doubled, to 470 tonnes ($1.14 million).
Imports of cheese to Ukraine in 2020 increased from 23,700 tonnes to 46,700 tonnes compared to the previous year, and in dollar terms from $ 108.9 million to $ 210.5 million, the State Customs Service has said.
According to its data, at the same time, export of cheese from Ukraine decreased to 6,300 tonnes for $ 24.4 million, or 11.3% and 8.9%, respectively, compared to 2019.
The drop in butter exports was also significant last year – to 11,200 tonnes for $ 48.7 million, or 38.6% and 36.8%, respectively, with a sharp increase in imports. It increased almost threefold, to 10,000 tonnes in natural terms and almost 2.5 times in dollar terms, to $ 40.6 million.
In addition, in 2020 import of milk and cream increased sharply, to 12,900 tonnes worth $ 11.6 million: the jump was 3.6 times and 3.3 times, respectively. Export of milk and cream from Ukraine decreased by a quarter, to 18,600 tonnes in natural terms and by 21.6% in dollar terms, to $ 12 million.
In 2020, imports of condensed milk also increased, to 6,100 tonnes worth $ 11.6 million, or 2.4 times. At the same time, exports amounted to 27,400 tonnes for $ 55 million, having decreased by 23.4% and 27.1%, respectively.
