Ukraine’s real deficit to cover all military and budget expenditures, which must be covered by foreign aid in 2025-2026, is approximately equal to the 2024 figure and amounts to about $90 billion annually, according to Alexander Paraschiy, head of the analytical department at investment company Concorde Capital.
“Ukraine’s total need for external assistance, both financial and military, averages approximately $90 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026,” he said during a discussion titled “What awaits the economy in 2025 and beyond,” organized by the Center for Economic Strategy on Friday.
Parashchiy noted that in 2024, defense and security spending amounted to approximately $95 billion, this year it is likely to increase to $100-105 billion, and in 2026, according to the new Minister of Defense Denys Shmyhal, the need could reach $120 billion.
He recalled that other state budget needs amount to approximately $42 billion, while Ukraine will be able to collect about $55 billion this year through taxes, fees, dividends, and financing from the NBU’s profits.
“That means we have a hole of about $142-55 billion, which is much more than the financial deficit figure,” the Concorde Capital analyst explained his calculations.
According to him, this need will be covered this year mainly through the EPA program (via frozen Russian assets) and the EU’s Ukraine Facility program, as well as the remainder of previously approved military aid from the United States.
“Let’s hope that the new administration (in the US) will still provide assistance under the new programs. But the biggest question now, unfortunately, is the financing of the war in 2026, because our total need for both financial and military assistance next year could reach $100 billion. And how to cover this need, unfortunately, remains a very big question,” Parashchiy concluded.
As reported, this week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine needs to cover a deficit of $65 billion per year, of which $40 billion is for budget needs and $25 billion is for domestic defense production.
The Concorde Capital investment group plans to invest EUR120 million in energy projects by the end of this year and expects to build an energy company worth more than $1 billion in “a couple of years,” according to founder and owner Igor Mazepa.
“By the end of the year, we will invest EUR120 million. The market is a ‘blue ocean’ with no competition, so it’s just a matter of getting started. The IRR in this case is 35%, which means a return on investment in 2.5-3 years,” Mazepa said at the Forbes Money forum in Kyiv.
According to him, the market expects gas prices to rise and electricity prices to fall, but with a projected payback period of 2-3 years, investors will already feel more confident.
Mazepa noted that he first invested in the energy sector in August 2024, investing EUR 32 million in a pilot project, and is already seeing the first results of this investment, which confirm the correctness of this strategy.
In his opinion, such prospects are related to the fact that 10 GW of power capacity has been destroyed by the aggressor, and this is mainly maneuverable capacity, which is the most expensive and for which the market pays a premium price.
“There has never been such a price, not once, not in a single year that I can remember in the last 25 years.
It is even higher than in some Eastern European countries. It’s an amazing market, huge, worth billions of dollars!“ emphasized the owner of Concorde Capital, adding that gas and electricity prices are expected to rise further.
”I think that in a couple of years we will build just such a billion-dollar company in the energy sector,” he concluded.
As reported, Mazepa, with the help of four unnamed partners, acquired a 50 MW energy storage system for EUR 32 million in early 2025 and plans to then contract equipment for a gas-fired power plant worth EUR 30 million to create a single energy complex.
Alexei Timofeev, a member of the board of directors of BGV Group Management, who spoke alongside Mazepa, agreed that there are attractive investment opportunities in the energy sector, where the group has also accepted five projects – wind, batteries, gas cogeneration, and investments in the energy efficiency of utility networks through an energy service company. At the same time, he stressed that these are short-term and relatively small projects, and that this “hot” market is not about billions in investments.
“This is simply an illustration of the approach that exists, which does not work in the long term. Because it is impossible to make long-term forecasts based on peak prices without taking into account factors such as the return or non-return of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the restoration or non-restoration of coal-fired power generation… In general, when you jump above zero in three years, you can afford such things, but no billions will come here – there is nowhere to go,” the expert believes.
He added that Ukraine does not need to restore 10 GW of destroyed energy capacity because it does not have such a deficit. “Ukraine’s energy sector was in surplus before the war, and everything that has been destroyed is reflected in the fact that we have deindustrialization, loss of territory, and loss of population,” Timofeev said.
Kryvyi Rih Cement plans to build 24 MW of power generation, the founder of Concorde Capital, Igor Mazepa, said on Facebook.
“We are currently building an independent power generation facility at Kryvyi Rih Cement. We need to generate 24 MW of power. This will be enough to keep the plant running smoothly,” he wrote.
According to him, the project will cost about $15 million, with a payback period of three to four years.
According to Mazepa, “This is a necessary measure to keep the business from stopping. In general, I see the prospect of investing in energy projects. Therefore, in the short term, we will build 40 MW of storage capacity, which will be balancing in the energy market. We see a good ROI of up to 30% depending on the market scenario.”
“Kryvyi Rih Cement (formerly Heidelberg Cement Ukraine) produces construction materials in three areas: cement, concrete, and granite crushed stone. On May 14, 2019, Cypriot Overin Limited, which is affiliated with Concorde Capital, became the owner of the dominant controlling stake in the company.
BUILD, CONCORDE CAPITAL, Kryvyi Rih Cement, power generation - founder
Investment company Concorde Capital is implementing a project to reconstruct the Kyiv Bus Station, located near the Central Railway Station (Vokzalna Metro Station), better known as the Yama, Concorde Capital founder Igor Mazepa said on Wednesday.
“My colleagues and I came up with an idea, why don’t we go in… take a closer look at the transportation market from the investment point of view… At Concorde, we decided to enter this market through infrastructure projects… (to start) with the reconstruction of the well-known Kyiv bus station, which is located in the city center near the railway station,” Mazepa said during a video presentation at the conference “Reforming Passenger Bus Transportation in Ukraine.”
According to the investment company, the passenger flow of this station is about 10 thousand people per day, plus or minus 400 bus trips.
Mazepa noted that the central bus station, in fact, was “in a terrible state” until recently.
“Now our task, our mission, is to carry out a human reconstruction in accordance with European standards. I can assure you that you will soon see the changes that will take place there,” Mazepa said.
At the same time, the founder of the investment company noted that the reconstruction would require significant capital investments.
“We are not afraid of this and we can guarantee that our customers and passengers will soon receive the highest quality service. Of course, we will ask that such services be paid for fairly,” Mazepa said.
According to Igor Sotnyk, director of Concorde Capital’s investment banking department, the reconstruction of the bus station is planned in two stages. The first stage, which separated bus and car traffic, has already been completed. The second stage involves work on the improvement of the bus station building in accordance with the concept that is currently being developed.
“We are now finalizing the mix of tenants who will be present there according to the needs of passengers. There will be a waiting area, a food court, a high-comfort zone, a children’s room, a first-aid post, and commercial premises,” Sotnyk said, adding that a working draft will be prepared after the concept is finalized.
In addition, the possibility of creating services for carriers – service stations and car washes – is being considered. The technical possibilities for their placement are being studied.
Sotnyk also said that the exact timing of the start of work will be known after the working documentation is ready, but expressed hope that this could happen in early 2025.
Mazepa estimated the legal road transportation market in Ukraine at almost UAH 7 billion. According to him, taking into account illegal transportation and those from which taxes are not paid, the real size of the market is “many times larger.”
Maryansky Quarry LLC of businessman Igor Mazepa’s Concorde Capital group has been granted the right to buy out a special permit for the use of the Maryansky limestone quarry (Dnipropetrovs’k region) after the winning company lost this right by a decision of the State Service of Geology and Subsoil of Ukraine.
According to the Nadra.info portal, Forsazh LLC was deprived of the right to obtain a special permit because it did not enter into a sale and purchase agreement following the tender, where it offered UAH 151.2 million. The relevant decision was enshrined in the order of the Head of the State Service of Geology and Subsoil of February 15.
Thus, the right to buy out the special permit was transferred to Maryansky Quarry LLC, which offered UAH 52.2 million at the tender.
According to the State Service of Geology and Mineral Resources, the reserves of the Maryansky deposit are about 132 million tons of limestone.
According to Opendatabot, the owners of Maryansky Quarry LLC are Kryvyi Rih Cement (90.1%) and Natalia Kurkova (9.9%), while the ultimate beneficiaries are Ihor Mazepa and Vitaliy Antonov.
A search of the office of investment company Concorde Capital without a warrant from an investigating judge on January 18 resulted in the seizure of employees’ personal phones and computers, as well as about a dozen folders of materials that do not relate to the time and territory of the criminal proceedings, the company’s press service said.
“So, the office itself is now paralyzed, and this entails inevitable losses and loss of clients. In addition, it is impossible to imagine the normal operation of an investment company without a head,” the head of the press service, Anna Dyakonova, told Interfax-Ukraine on Monday.
Earlier in the day, State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) Director Oleksiy Sukhachov said that the procedural actions of law enforcement officers in the case of Concorde Capital CEO and founder Igor Mazepa did not lead to blocking or limiting the business, and the company can fulfill its obligations in full.
“At the moment, there have been no actions that would block the business or limit the activities of the Concorde Capital investment fund, which allows it to continue to operate and fulfill its investment obligations in full,” said the SBI director at a briefing in Kyiv.
For her part, Dyakonova added that one of the clients has suspended a loan agreement for construction in the SHELEST project.
According to her, Mazepa also had a number of meetings scheduled in Davos to attract investment in Kryvyi Rih Cement, but now the implementation of the company’s expansion project is in question.
She also said that Mazepa’s lawyers have already appealed the court’s January 19 ruling to place him under arrest with an alternative bail of UAH 349 million, and confirmed that the head of Concorde Capital’s house in his small homeland in Chernihiv region burned down.
As reported, on January 18, SBI officers together with the National Police detained Mazepa on the Ukrainian-Polish border on charges of organizing a scheme to illegally seize 2.4 hectares, which allegedly contain hydraulic structures of critical infrastructure – Kyiv HPP, and currently house the premium cottage community Goodlife Park. It was noted that three more people, including Mazepa’s brother, were detained in different regions of Ukraine, and searches were conducted at the office of Concorde Capital and the offices of some of its employees.
According to the SBI, at the end of 2023, eight suspects were served with a similar case involving 7 hectares of land in the neighborhood and other people were arrested. According to the database of court decisions, these are land plots involved “in the process of implementing a construction project of elite housing – a premium club cottage town Riviera Village,” which was originally developed by the Dragon Ukrainian Properties and Development (DUPD).
The SBI indicated that the defendants face up to 12 years in prison with confiscation of property.
